{"id":218344,"date":"2022-09-10T21:12:56","date_gmt":"2022-09-10T19:12:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=218344"},"modified":"2022-09-10T21:12:57","modified_gmt":"2022-09-10T19:12:57","slug":"claim-the-world-is-on-the-brink-of-five-climate-tipping-points","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=218344","title":{"rendered":"Claim: The World is On the Brink of Five Climate Tipping Points"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Essay by Eric Worrall<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Is anyone else fed up with us approaching but never actually crossing all those dangerous tipping points?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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World on brink of five \u2018disastrous\u2019 climate tipping points, study finds<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Giant ice sheets, ocean currents and permafrost regions may already have passed point of irreversible change<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Damian Carrington<\/a>Environment editor
@dpcarrington<\/a>Fri 9 Sep 2022 04.00 AEST<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The climate crisis has driven the world to the brink of multiple \u201cdisastrous\u201d tipping points, according to a major study.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It shows five dangerous tipping points<\/a> may already have been passed due to the 1.1C of global heating caused by humanity to date.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These include the collapse of Greenland\u2019s ice cap<\/a>, eventually producing a huge sea level rise, the collapse of a key current<\/a> in the north Atlantic, disrupting rain upon which billions of people depend for food, and an abrupt melting of carbon-rich permafrost<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At 1.5C of heating, the minimum rise now expected, four of the five tipping points move from being possible to likely, the analysis said. Also at 1.5C, an additional five tipping points become possible, including changes to vast northern forests<\/a> and the loss of almost all mountain glaciers<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In total, the researchers found evidence for 16 tipping points, with the final six requiring global heating of at least 2C to be triggered, according to the scientists\u2019 estimations. The tipping points would take effect on timescales varying from a few years to centuries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026Read more: https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2022\/sep\/08\/world-on-brink-five-climate-tipping-points-study-finds<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The abstract of the study;<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Exceeding 1.5\u00b0C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

David I. Armstrong McKay*<\/a><\/sup> https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0020-7461<\/a> d.mckay@exeter.ac.uk<\/a>
Arie Staal https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5409-1436<\/a>
Jesse F. Abrams https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0411-8519<\/a>
Ricarda Winkelmann https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1248-3217<\/a>
Boris Sakschewski https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7230-9723<\/a>
Sina Loriani https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6660-960X<\/a>
Ingo Fetzer https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7335-5679<\/a>
Sarah E. Cornell https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4367-1296<\/a>
Johan Rockstr\u00f6m
Timothy M. Lenton*<\/a><\/sup> https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6725-7498<\/a> d.mckay@exeter.ac.uk<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

9 Sep 2022<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vol 377, Issue 6611<\/p>\n\n\n\n

DOI: 10.1126\/science.abn7950<\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond a warming threshold, leading to substantial Earth system impacts. Synthesizing paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies, we provide a revised shortlist of global \u201ccore\u201d tipping elements and regional \u201cimpact\u201d tipping elements and their temperature thresholds. Current global warming of ~1.1\u00b0C above preindustrial temperatures already lies within the lower end of some tipping point uncertainty ranges. Several tipping points may be triggered in the Paris Agreement range of 1.5 to <2\u00b0C global warming, with many more likely at the 2 to 3\u00b0C of warming expected on current policy trajectories. This strengthens the evidence base for urgent action to mitigate climate change and to develop improved tipping point risk assessment, early warning capability, and adaptation strategies.Read more (paywalled): https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/science.abn7950<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Unfortunately the study is paywalled, so I can\u2019t tell you the timeframe of these alleged tipping points. Not that the predicted dates matter that much \u2013 in my experience, tipping point predictions are usually quietly ignored<\/a> or deleted<\/a> when the deadline expires.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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via Watts Up With That?<\/mark><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

September 10, 2022<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Claim: The World is On the Brink of Five Climate Tipping Points<\/a><\/blockquote>