{"id":213244,"date":"2022-08-12T19:10:45","date_gmt":"2022-08-12T17:10:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=213244"},"modified":"2022-08-12T19:14:09","modified_gmt":"2022-08-12T17:14:09","slug":"enso-update-la-nina-continues","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=213244","title":{"rendered":"ENSO update: La Ni\u00f1a continues"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It could still be active into next spring, according to some forecasters. Unusual by its own historical (back to 1950) standards.<\/em>
\u2013 \u2013 \u2013
La Ni\u00f1a continues! It\u2019s likely that the La Ni\u00f1a three-peat will happen: the chance that the current La Ni\u00f1a will last through early winter is over 70%, says NOAA\u2019s ENSO blog<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

If it happens, this will be only the third time with three La Ni\u00f1a winters in a row in our 73-year record.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ENSO (El Ni\u00f1o\/Southern Oscillation, the whole La Ni\u00f1a and El Ni\u00f1o system) has the greatest influence on weather and climate during the Northern Hemisphere cold season, so forecasters pay especially close attention when it looks like ENSO will be active in the winter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hopelessly Devoted to You<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

La Ni\u00f1a is present when the sea surface temperature in the east-central Pacific Ocean is at least 0.5 \u00b0C (0.9 \u00b0F) cooler than the long-term average, along with evidence of a stronger atmospheric circulation above the equatorial Pacific.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In July, the sea surface temperature in the Ni\u00f1o-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific, our primary monitoring region, was 0.7 \u00b0C cooler than average (average = 1991\u20132020) according to the ERSSTv5 dataset.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This makes 21 of the past 24 months with a deviation from average below -0.5 \u00b0C.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Continued here<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Three-year history of sea surface temperatures in the Ni\u00f1o-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific for the 8 existing double-dip La Ni\u00f1a events (gray lines) and the current event (purple line). Of all the previous 7 events, 2 went on to La Ni\u00f1a in their third year (below the blue dashed line), 2 went on to be at or near El Ni\u00f1o levels (above the red dashed line) and three were neutral. Graph is based on monthly Ni\u00f1o-3.4 index data from CPC<\/a> using ERSSTv5<\/a>. Created by Michelle L\u2019Heureux.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

August 12, 2022, by oldbrew<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nENSO update: La Ni\u00f1a continues<\/a>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

via Tallbloke’s Talkshop<\/mark><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It could still be active into next spring, according to some forecasters. Unusual by its own historical (back to 1950) standards.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":213246,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-213244","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","9":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-424.png?fit=1101%2C879&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-Ttq","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":339497,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=339497","url_meta":{"origin":213244,"position":0},"title":"NOAA Criteria Suggest Full-Fledged La Ni\u00f1a Unlikely in 2024 \u2013 Even A Single La Ni\u00f1a Threshold Unlikely During the Indian Southwest Monsoon","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"13\/08\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Concluding from the above analysis, Enso Neutral conditions will prevail for JJA2024 and at the end of August, since only four months will be left in the current year 2024 full-fledged La Nina cannot be established, even if La Nina thresh hold is achieved in any of the four months\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate Prediction Center (CPC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate Prediction Center (CPC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-prediction-center-cpc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0-La-Nina.jpeg?fit=1200%2C806&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0-La-Nina.jpeg?fit=1200%2C806&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0-La-Nina.jpeg?fit=1200%2C806&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0-La-Nina.jpeg?fit=1200%2C806&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0-La-Nina.jpeg?fit=1200%2C806&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":301633,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=301633","url_meta":{"origin":213244,"position":1},"title":"Strong El Nino Conditions Prevails at The End of January 2024","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"13\/02\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The classification of El Ni\u00f1o events, including the strength labels, is somewhat subjective and can vary among meteorological and climate agencies. There isn\u2019t a strict rule defining the specific number of consecutive Oceanic Ni\u00f1o Index (ONI) values that must be 2.0\u00b0C or above to categorize an El Ni\u00f1o event as\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"climate model\"","block_context":{"text":"climate model","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-model"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00el_nino_globe.v2.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00el_nino_globe.v2.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00el_nino_globe.v2.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00el_nino_globe.v2.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00el_nino_globe.v2.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":303496,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=303496","url_meta":{"origin":213244,"position":2},"title":"The Coming Collapse Of El Nino and The Ramifications on The Atlantic Basin Tropical Season","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"20\/02\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Above-normal sea surface temperatures continue this month across most of the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean, but there are signs that this El Nino episode which began about a year ago will flip to La Nina conditions (colder-than-normal) by the early part of the 2024 summer season.","rel":"","context":"In \"2024 Atlantic Basin\"","block_context":{"text":"2024 Atlantic Basin","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=2024-atlantic-basin"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0el-nino-la-nina.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0el-nino-la-nina.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0el-nino-la-nina.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0el-nino-la-nina.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0el-nino-la-nina.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":186854,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=186854","url_meta":{"origin":213244,"position":3},"title":"La Nina Conditions Continue Across the Equatorial Pacific","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/02\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Sea surface temperatures continue to run at colder-than-normal levels (shown in blue) in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean and La Nina is likely to last into at least the beginning part of the upcoming summer season. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com Paul Dorian Sea surface temperatures continue to run\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0image-21.png?fit=975%2C488&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0image-21.png?fit=975%2C488&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0image-21.png?fit=975%2C488&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0image-21.png?fit=975%2C488&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":157217,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=157217","url_meta":{"origin":213244,"position":4},"title":"La Ni\u00f1a to emerge in Aug-Oct season, U.S. weather service says","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"14\/08\/2021","format":false,"excerpt":"No imminent upward pressure on global temperatures resulting from the ENSO phenomenon, judging by the latest analysis. 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La Ni\u00f1a \u2013-a natural cycle marked by cooler-than-average\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/0global-cooling.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/0global-cooling.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/0global-cooling.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/0global-cooling.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/213244","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=213244"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/213244\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":213251,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/213244\/revisions\/213251"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/213246"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=213244"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=213244"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=213244"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}