{"id":208451,"date":"2022-07-14T10:38:50","date_gmt":"2022-07-14T08:38:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=208451"},"modified":"2022-07-14T10:38:52","modified_gmt":"2022-07-14T08:38:52","slug":"arctic-sea-ice-is-constantly-changing-which-means-polar-bears-must-be-flexible-in-their-requirements","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=208451","title":{"rendered":"Arctic sea ice is constantly changing which means polar bears must be flexible in their requirements"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In honour of upcoming&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/polarbearsinternational.org\/act-now\/awareness-events\/arctic-sea-ice-day\/\">\u201aArctic Sea Ice Day\u2018<\/a>&nbsp;(15 July), I revisit my 2015 essay on sea ice stability and polar bears, called&nbsp;<em>The Arctic Fallacy<\/em>. It challenges the flawed and out-dated ecological concept that under natural conditions, sea ice provides a stable and predictable habitat for polar bears, walrus and seals. The wide-spread adoption of this fallacy has allowed the present-day doom and gloom attitude of most Arctic specialists to develop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"573\" data-attachment-id=\"208453\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=208453\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0chukchi-sea-polar-bear-arctic_early-august-2018_a-khan-nsidc.jpg?fit=1697%2C1345&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1697,1345\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;9&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;ILCE-7M3&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;1534142025&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;240&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;100&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0.003125&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;1&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0chukchi-sea-polar-bear-arctic_early-august-2018_a-khan-nsidc\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0chukchi-sea-polar-bear-arctic_early-august-2018_a-khan-nsidc.jpg?fit=723%2C573&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0chukchi-sea-polar-bear-arctic_early-august-2018_a-khan-nsidc.jpg?resize=723%2C573&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-208453\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0chukchi-sea-polar-bear-arctic_early-august-2018_a-khan-nsidc.jpg?resize=1024%2C812&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0chukchi-sea-polar-bear-arctic_early-august-2018_a-khan-nsidc.jpg?resize=300%2C238&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0chukchi-sea-polar-bear-arctic_early-august-2018_a-khan-nsidc.jpg?resize=768%2C609&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0chukchi-sea-polar-bear-arctic_early-august-2018_a-khan-nsidc.jpg?resize=1536%2C1217&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0chukchi-sea-polar-bear-arctic_early-august-2018_a-khan-nsidc.jpg?resize=1200%2C951&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0chukchi-sea-polar-bear-arctic_early-august-2018_a-khan-nsidc.jpg?w=1697&amp;ssl=1 1697w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0chukchi-sea-polar-bear-arctic_early-august-2018_a-khan-nsidc.jpg?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[<em>Polar Bears International<\/em>&nbsp;have declared July 15 to be&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/polarbearsinternational.org\/act-now\/awareness-events\/arctic-sea-ice-day\/\">\u201aArctic Sea Ice Day\u2018<\/a>&nbsp;to further its propaganda efforts to \u2019save our sea ice\u2018, which they claim is disappearing at an alarming rate due to global warming.]<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"483\" data-attachment-id=\"208454\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=208454\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0franz-josef-land-polar-bear-2019-no-date_photo-by-michael-hambrey_sm.png?fit=800%2C534&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"800,534\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0franz-josef-land-polar-bear-2019-no-date_photo-by-michael-hambrey_sm\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0franz-josef-land-polar-bear-2019-no-date_photo-by-michael-hambrey_sm.png?fit=723%2C483&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0franz-josef-land-polar-bear-2019-no-date_photo-by-michael-hambrey_sm.png?resize=723%2C483&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-208454\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0franz-josef-land-polar-bear-2019-no-date_photo-by-michael-hambrey_sm.png?w=800&amp;ssl=1 800w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0franz-josef-land-polar-bear-2019-no-date_photo-by-michael-hambrey_sm.png?resize=300%2C200&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0franz-josef-land-polar-bear-2019-no-date_photo-by-michael-hambrey_sm.png?resize=768%2C513&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We know that sea ice changes from season to season. However, the concept that sea ice is a stable habitat assumes that these seasonal changes are&nbsp;<em>predictable<\/em>&nbsp;and virtually the same from one year to the next under natural conditions \u2013 at least, similar enough that the differences cannot be responsible for marked declines in population size (see also Crockford 2019).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As I explain in my essay, biologists were taught at university that sea ice&nbsp;<em>should<\/em>&nbsp;be a stable habitat and as a result, they\u2019ve glossed over evidence they collected to the contrary. See recent posts&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/polarbearscience.com\/2020\/08\/09\/many-w-hudson-bay-polar-bears-still-offshore-at-7-august-despite-apparent-low-ice-levels\/\">here<\/a>,&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"http:\/\/polarbearscience.com\/2015\/05\/15\/beaufort-sea-polynyas-open-two-weeks-before-1975-open-water-is-good-news-for-polar-bears\/\" target=\"_blank\">here<\/a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"http:\/\/polarbearscience.com\/2015\/05\/26\/hudson-bay-sea-ice-coverage-is-atypical-this-year-but-what-does-that-mean-for-polar-bears\/\" target=\"_blank\">here<\/a>, for example. In addition, we have the evidence from the Barents Sea that most female polar bears are flexible enough to have&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/polarbearscience.com\/2018\/01\/09\/franz-josef-land-is-a-sea-ice-refugium-for-most-pregnant-barents-sea-polar-bears\/\">shifted to the Franz Josef Land<\/a>&nbsp;archipelago or its adjacent mobile pack ice for making maternity dens when sea ice around the eastern Svalbard archipelago dropped below critical levels: they didn\u2019t stay and lose their cubs, they simply moved east a little bit where conditions were better (Anderson et al. 2012; Aars et al. 2017).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The big media item from last month about a population of bears living in fjords free of land-fast ice for much of the year&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/polarbearscience.com\/2022\/06\/16\/newly-discovered-se-greenland-polar-bear-subpopulation-another-assumption-proven-false\/\">in Southeast Greenland<\/a>&nbsp;is additional evidence that polar bears are flexible in their sea ice requirements (Laidre et al. 2022). In recent years, some polar bears also appear to be&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.telegraph.co.uk\/world-news\/2022\/01\/01\/polar-bears-forced-migrate-america-russia-climate-change\/\">shifting from the western Beaufort Sea<\/a>&nbsp;into&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/polarbearscience.com\/2022\/01\/02\/a-mass-exodus-of-polar-bears-from-alaska-to-russia-has-taken-place-local-residents-claim\/\">the Chukchi Sea<\/a>, where food has become&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/polarbearscience.com\/2021\/01\/07\/arctic-report-card-2020-highlights-the-huge-benefit-of-less-summer-sea-ice-more-food\/\">particularly abundant due to reduced summer sea ice<\/a>&nbsp;(Frey et al. 2021; Rode et al. 2014, 2018)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Not only has this behavioural flexibility of polar bears been disregarded but the known negative effects on populations of short-term natural variations in sea ice and snow cover over sea ice have been entirely ignored in modeled predictions of future conditions. These are two of the main reasons computer models of polar bear survival have failed in the past and will continue to fail going forward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Read the summary of my 2015 essay below and download the entire paper&nbsp;<strong><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"http:\/\/www.thegwpf.org\/content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/Arctic-Fallacy1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">here.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Citation<\/strong>:&nbsp;<strong>Crockford, S.J. 2015.&nbsp;<\/strong>The Arctic Fallacy: Sea ice stability and the polar bear. Briefing Paper #16, Global Warming Policy Foundation, London.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/polarbearscience.files.wordpress.com\/2015\/07\/crockford_arctic-fallacy2015_gwpf-brief-16.pdf\">PDF.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Arctic Fallacy: Sea Ice Stability and the Polar Bear<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Since the late 1960s, Arctic marine mammal conservation has been based on the assumption that sea ice provides a stable, predictable environment for polar bears and Arctic seals: today, it underpins their \u2018threatened with extinction\u2019 status. A stable environment, the oversimplified&nbsp;<em>K-selection theory<\/em>&nbsp;goes, should support populations at relatively high levels over time, without marked variation in size due to habitat change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This idealized concept was strongly promoted by the most popular university-level ecology textbooks of the 1970s and was embraced by early polar bear biologists, who began their careers at a time when polar bear were truly threatened with extinction by overhunting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Observations since then, however, have shown the assumption of sea ice as a stable habitat over short time scales is false. Spring sea ice thickness has been naturally variable over time scales of a few years to decades in the Beaufort Sea, East Greenland, and Hudson Bay; spring ice extent has been naturally variable in the Barents Sea for centuries and spring snow depth on sea ice is known to vary over short periods.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Marked declines in polar bear and ringed seal survival in response to thick spring sea ice and reduced snow depth have been documented. These two variables are closely tied because spring (April \u2014 June) is the period of on-ice birth and nursing for ice-dependent seals and is also when polar bears consume two-thirds of their annual prey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Apparently expecting stable or increasing populations, despite their own evidence to the contrary, Arctic biologists now surprisingly attribute virtually every downturn in population size of Arctic species to declines in summer sea ice blamed on human use of fossil fuels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Regardless of such willful blindness to the facts, the assumption that Arctic sea ice is a naturally stable habitat over short time frames is a biological fallacy. Predictive population models based on this myth are flawed, their results illusory. Yet, the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and the US government have, for the first time, accepted modeled (future) population declines of Arctic species based on modeled (future) summer sea ice changes as valid threats to their survival, all built upon this fallacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>From the foreword by geneticist Matthew Cronin:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Scientists know that the assumptions used in a model are critical to its validity. For example, assumptions in genetic models that I use (e.g., mutation rates or species divergence times) are estimates, not known quantities, making model results uncertain. It is legitimate to use models with uncertain assumptions, but the uncertainty of the model results must be openly acknowledged and alternatives considered. Crockford demonstrates that this has not been done for polar bears and that the basic assumption of stable sea ice is not valid.&nbsp; She strengthens her argument with revelations that there is a consensus that winter sea ice is expected to persist despite global warming, and that heavy spring ice, not absence of summer ice, has a negative impact on seals and thus polar bears.&nbsp; These points could change the entire argument about the future survival of polar bears.&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The constant chorus declaring crises for high-profile wildlife (snail darters, spotted owls, wolves, bears, etc.) has led to what I call the \u201cpan-impact\u201d paradigm: there is always a human impact on wildlife, and scientific information will be found to support a preconceived conclusion. This has resulted in many of us now having a skeptical \u201cboy who cried wolf\u201d attitude regarding wildlife: everything people do will be claimed to have a negative impact on some critical species, and must be corrected by top down government regulation (of which the ESA is a preferred mechanism in the U.S.). This is dangerous, not only to science and economics, but because we might not pay attention when real threats arise.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>I appreciate that global warming is potentially very important. However, we should not stifle open discussion and debate that is integral to science. Crockford\u2019s article is a valuable contribution to the scientific discourse on polar bears, and I hope it gets a fair hearing. &nbsp;I encourage readers on both sides of the climate debate to engage in civil discourse on these issues, and not prejudge any work without thoughtful consideration.&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>References<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Aars, J., Marques,T.A, Lone, K., Anderson, M., Wiig, \u00d8., Fl\u00f8ystad, I.M.B., Hagen, S.B. and Buckland, S.T. 2017.<\/strong>&nbsp;The number and distribution of polar bears in the western Barents Sea.&nbsp;<em>Polar Research<\/em>&nbsp;36:1. 1374125. doi:<a href=\"http:\/\/10.0.4.56\/17518369.2017.1374125\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">10.1080\/17518369.2017.1374125<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Andersen, M., Derocher, A.E., Wiig, \u00d8. and Aars, J. 2012.<\/strong>&nbsp;Polar bear (<em>Ursus maritimus<\/em>) maternity den distribution in Svalbard, Norway.&nbsp;<em>Polar Biology<\/em>&nbsp;35:499-508.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Crockford, S.J. 2019<\/strong>.&nbsp;<em>The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened<\/em>. Global Warming Policy Foundation, London. Available in&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Polar-Bear-Catastrophe-Never-Happened\/dp\/0993119085\" target=\"_blank\">paperback<\/a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Polar-Bear-Catastrophe-Never-Happened-ebook\/dp\/B07PT7SCZ8\/\" target=\"_blank\">ebook<\/a>&nbsp;formats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">F<strong>rey, K.E., Comiso, J.C., Cooper, L.W., Grebmeier, J.M. and Stock, L.V. 2021.<\/strong>&nbsp;Arctic Ocean primary productivity: the response of marine algae to climate warming and sea ice decline.&nbsp;<em>2021 NOAA Arctic Report Card<\/em>,&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.25923\/kxhb-dw16\" target=\"_blank\">DOI: 10.25923\/kxhb-dw16<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Laidre, K.L., Supple, M.A., Born, E.W., et al. 2022.<\/strong>&nbsp;Glacial ice supports a distinct and undocumented polar bear subpopulation persisting in late 21st century sea-ice conditions.&nbsp;<em>Science&nbsp;<\/em>376(6599):1333-1338.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Rode, K.D., Regehr, E.V., Douglas, D., Durner, G., Derocher, A.E., Thiemann, G.W., and Budge, S. 2014.&nbsp;<\/strong>Variation in the response of an Arctic top predator experiencing habitat loss: feeding and reproductive ecology of two polar bear populations.&nbsp;<em>Global Change Biology<\/em>&nbsp;<strong>20(1):<\/strong>76-88.&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/gcb.12339\/abstract\">http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/gcb.12339\/abstract<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Rode, K. D., R. R. Wilson, D. C. Douglas, V. Muhlenbruch, T.C. Atwood, E. V. Regehr, E.S. Richardson, N.W. Pilfold, A.E. Derocher, G.M Durner, I. Stirling, S.C. Amstrup, M. S. Martin, A.M. Pagano, and K. Simac. 2018.<\/strong>\u00a0Spring fasting behavior in a marine apex predator provides an index of ecosystem productivity.\u00a0<em>Global Change Biology<\/em><a href=\"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/gcb.13933\/full\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u00a0http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/gcb.13933\/full<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">via <strong><em><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-blue-color\">polarbearscience<\/mark><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">July 13, 2022<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-link is-provider-polarbearscience wp-block-embed-polarbearscience\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<a href=\"https:\/\/polarbearscience.com\/2022\/07\/13\/arctic-sea-ice-is-constantly-changing-which-means-polar-bears-must-be-flexible-in-their-requirements\/\">Arctic sea ice is constantly changing which means polar bears must be flexible in their&nbsp;requirements<\/a>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In honour of upcoming&nbsp;\u201aArctic Sea Ice Day\u2018&nbsp;(15 July), I revisit my 2015 essay on sea ice stability and polar bears, called&nbsp;The Arctic Fallacy. It challenges the flawed and out-dated ecological concept that under natural conditions, sea ice provides a stable and predictable habitat for polar bears, walrus and seals. The wide-spread adoption of this fallacy [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":208453,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-208451","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","9":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0chukchi-sea-polar-bear-arctic_early-august-2018_a-khan-nsidc.jpg?fit=1697%2C1345&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-Se7","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":417814,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=417814","url_meta":{"origin":208451,"position":0},"title":"Sea ice conditions continued to favour Arctic marine life in\u00a02025","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"19\/12\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Increased primary productivity\u00a0in the Arctic generated by reduced summer sea ice has continued into 2025, according to NOAA\u2019s annual\u00a0Arctic Report Card\u00a0published yesterday, which means Arctic seals and whales, walrus, and polar bears will continue to flourish.","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic sea ice\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic sea ice","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-sea-ice"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/00Screenshot-2025-12-19-144656.png?fit=1200%2C877&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/00Screenshot-2025-12-19-144656.png?fit=1200%2C877&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/00Screenshot-2025-12-19-144656.png?fit=1200%2C877&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/00Screenshot-2025-12-19-144656.png?fit=1200%2C877&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/00Screenshot-2025-12-19-144656.png?fit=1200%2C877&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":219951,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=219951","url_meta":{"origin":208451,"position":1},"title":"Polar bear no closer to extinction than it was 18 years ago as Arctic Sea ice resists \u201atipping point\u2018","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"21\/09\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"All predictions of disaster aside, in fact the polar bear is\u00a0no closer to extinction\u00a0than it was in 2005 as Arctic Sea ice\u00a0again steadfastly resists\u00a0slipping past a\u00a0catastrophic \u2018tipping point\u2019\u00a0\u2014 or the\u00a0\u2018death spiral\u2019, as some chicken-littles\u00a0continue to call it.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-1030.png?fit=1200%2C845&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-1030.png?fit=1200%2C845&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-1030.png?fit=1200%2C845&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-1030.png?fit=1200%2C845&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-1030.png?fit=1200%2C845&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":210454,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=210454","url_meta":{"origin":208451,"position":2},"title":"Expert admits polar bears in Svalbard are thriving despite the greatest loss of sea ice in the Arctic","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"27\/07\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"In an article published last week, polar bear specialist Jon Aars is quoted as saying that Svalbard bears are \u201eunexpectedly\u201c thriving. However, he fails short of admitting that the bears don\u2019t really need summer ice as long as they are well-fed in spring, which they have been for the\u00a0last two\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0barents-sea-svalbard-polar-bear-spring-2018_angelika-renner_norwegian-polar-institute.jpg?fit=1200%2C797&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0barents-sea-svalbard-polar-bear-spring-2018_angelika-renner_norwegian-polar-institute.jpg?fit=1200%2C797&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0barents-sea-svalbard-polar-bear-spring-2018_angelika-renner_norwegian-polar-institute.jpg?fit=1200%2C797&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0barents-sea-svalbard-polar-bear-spring-2018_angelika-renner_norwegian-polar-institute.jpg?fit=1200%2C797&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0barents-sea-svalbard-polar-bear-spring-2018_angelika-renner_norwegian-polar-institute.jpg?fit=1200%2C797&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":261014,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=261014","url_meta":{"origin":208451,"position":3},"title":"Polar bear sea ice habitat near the end of Arctic spring 2023","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/06\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Arctic sea ice is beginning to melt and the end of spring is drawing near.\u00a0Mating season\u00a0is over for polar bears as is the gorging on young seals in most regions as weaned pups head into open water to feed for themselves. Only\u00a0predator-savvy adult and subadult seals\u00a0remain on the ice while\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic sea ice\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic sea ice","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-sea-ice"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/00-polar-bear-174.jpeg?fit=1200%2C806&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/00-polar-bear-174.jpeg?fit=1200%2C806&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/00-polar-bear-174.jpeg?fit=1200%2C806&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/00-polar-bear-174.jpeg?fit=1200%2C806&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/00-polar-bear-174.jpeg?fit=1200%2C806&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":293513,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=293513","url_meta":{"origin":208451,"position":4},"title":"The Narrative That Polar Bears Need Sea Ice To Catch Prey Has Collapsed As More Evidence Piles Up","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/01\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Arctic regions with 6+ months of sea ice coverage today were ice-free nearly year-round 9,000 to 5,000 years ago (2\u00b0C warmer) and 130,000 to 115,000 years ago (7-8\u00b0C warmer). And yet polar bears survived these periods.","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-50.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-50.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-50.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-50.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":248982,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=248982","url_meta":{"origin":208451,"position":5},"title":"15 years after ESA listing as \u2018threatened\u2019 due to sea ice loss polar bears are abundant &#038; thriving","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"22\/03\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Experts who used the American Endangered Species Act (ESA) to list polar bears as \u2018threatened\u2019 in May 2008 were mistaken: sea ice authorities got their predictions wrong about future ice extent and polar bear specialists erroneously declared that two-thirds of polar bears would disappear if summer sea ice declines continued\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-888.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-888.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-888.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-888.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-888.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/208451","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=208451"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/208451\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":208455,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/208451\/revisions\/208455"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/208453"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=208451"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=208451"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=208451"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}