{"id":192087,"date":"2022-03-17T17:12:06","date_gmt":"2022-03-17T16:12:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=192087"},"modified":"2022-03-17T17:12:07","modified_gmt":"2022-03-17T16:12:07","slug":"the-cancun-con","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=192087","title":{"rendered":"The Cancun Con"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I read articles on the Guardian\u2019s website most days, with a view to enjoying and receiving benefit from some occasionally excellent journalism, but mostly to see what\u2019s going on in the world of those who believe we are facing a \u201cclimate crisis\u201d. As a result, I think I have identified a fairly stale but stable format, namely \u2013 find places in the world that are facing problems, seek desperately for reasons why those problems can be attributed to the said \u201cclimate crisis\u201d, then produce an article with a suitably alarming headline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the format continues so, I suppose, will I find myself writing pieces that seek to debunk the claims. I have already written \u201cThe Gambia Gambit\u201di<\/sup><\/a>, in which I hope I succeeded in demonstrating that the climate crisis facing The Gambia is no such thing. And then there was \u201cVolte-Face\u201dii<\/sup><\/a>, in which I expressed bewilderment at how human-made climate change can apparently make drought worse and result in the shrinking of Lake Turkana, only for human-induced climate change then to make heavy rainfall worse and result in the flooding of Lake Turkana. Today, though, we turn to a different continent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sun sets on Mexico\u2019s paradise beaches as climate crisis hits home<\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Sufficiently alarming, do you think? That was the headline to an articleiii<\/sup><\/a> that appeared in the Guardian today, 14th<\/sup> March 2022. In case the headline didn\u2019t do the job adequately, the sub-heading tried to ensure that the message was clear: \u201cRising sea levels and fierce storms threaten Quintana Roo\u2019s coastline, and with it the ribbon of beach resorts and timeshares<\/em>\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What a gloomy story. From \u201cthe increasingly unmanageable quantities of seaweed washing up on the beach<\/em>\u201d, to \u201ca bigger, existential concern<\/em>.\u201d Yes, you guessed \u2013 climate change. \u201cRises in sea level driven by<\/em> \u2013 not just climate change, but by \u2013 \u201cthe climate crisis\u201d.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Beaches are disappearing, and some are only maintained artificially with sand dredged from the seabed. Often they are little more than strips of sand, no wider than a dirt road. Sometimes the strand has completely vanished, leaving waves breaking against the walls of swimming pools, restaurants and houses.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

And as if that isn\u2019t enough:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hurricanes are expected to increase in intensity due to higher ocean temperatures, leading to storm surges and exacerbating beach erosion. In 2005, Canc\u00fan lost large swaths of an eight-mile beach after Hurricane Wilma, which were later artificially restored, and then hit again by Hurricane Dean two years later.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Algal blooms have also plagued the coast of the Riviera Maya, a phenomenon scientists have linked to warming sea temperatures. The beachfront along the coast is frequently<\/em>lined with mounds of rotting black seaweed. In Tulum, the seaweed is often stacked high in piles with workers shovelling it on to wheelbarrows on the shore and hotel owners despairing over where to put it all.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s look at that last claim first.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>Sargassum: The biggest seaweed bloom in the world<\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n\n

So says the headline to a BBC articleiv<\/sup><\/a> that appeared on 4th<\/sup> July 2019. The article confirms that the biggest seawood bloom in the world stretched from West Africa to the Gulf of Mexico, and has inundated beaches, causing an environmental nuisance. But what has caused this strange recent phenomenon?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deforestation and fertiliser use are among the factors thought to be driving the growth.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, being the BBC, we are also told:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026\u201dThis is all ultimately related to climate change because it affects precipitation and ocean circulation and even human activities, but what we\u2019ve shown is that these blooms do not occur because of increased water temperature,\u201c said Dr Hu.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, no link between climate change and the blooms is offered, merely a claim that \u201cThis is all ultimately related to climate change\u201d, <\/em>but without an explanation. And, crucially, while the Guardian says it is \u201ca phenomenon scientists have linked to warming sea temperatures\u201d<\/em>, the BBC assures us that \u201cthese blooms do not occur because of increased water temperature\u201d<\/em>. So much for settled science.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fairness, climate change is put forward (it seems it\u2019s obligatory) by researchers who say more study and funding is needed to get to the bottom of the issue, but it\u2019s a relatively minor contributory factor, if it\u2019s a factor at all:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The influxes of the past decade seem to have originated along Brazil\u2019s Atlantic coast, not in the Sargasso Sea. Large amounts of fertilizer flow into the Amazon River and then to the ocean from industrial-scale agriculture and ranches. Nutrients also pour into the Gulf of Mexico from the Mississippi River. Climate change-driven downpours increase runoff.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Saharan dust clouds that extend for thousands of miles across the Atlantic Ocean have also contributed to this explosion of sargassum seaweed. The dust contains iron, nitrogen and phosphorous that fertilizes plankton and seaweed blooms. These thick atmospheric dust plumes corresponded with a sargassum spike in 2015 and the worst incursion of sargassum in 2018.<\/em>v<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

What, then of the fundamental claim of sea-level rise?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>A realistic expectation of sea level rise in the Mexican Caribbean<\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s the promising title to a studyvi<\/sup><\/a> that appeared in December 2019 in the Journal of Ocean Engineering and Science.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Guardian article warned that \u201c[r]<\/em>ises in sea level driven by the climate crisis could reach 40cm (15in) by 2050\u201d<\/em>. And scientific study claiming to assess a realistic<\/strong> expectation of sea level rise?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>Sea level rise by thermal expansion is likely less than 0.7\u202fmm\/yr.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>Subsidence is main contributor of sea level rise in many areas of the world.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>The sea level rise is assessed for Cancun and Playa del Carmen.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>The likely relative sea level rise is 67\u201376\u202fmm higher by 2050.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A bit of a difference, I would say, especially as subsidence, rather than actually rising sea levels, is postulated a main contributor:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While there is no information about the relative rate of rise of the sea level (and the acceleration) in Cancun, two GPS domes are located between Cancun and Playa del Carmen. The GPS dome of CNC0 shows over the time window 2007.42 to 2018.84 a subsidence of \u22122.463 \u00b1 0.806\u202fmm\/yr. while the GPS dome TGMX shows over the time window 2015.14 to 2019.02 a subsidence of \u22122.733 \u00b1 2.231\u202fmm\/yr. Hence, the area of Cancun is very likely subjected to subsidence\u2026<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We are also told:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are very few tide gauges in Mexico along the shores of the Gulf, and none of them satisfies minimal length and quality requirements to compute trends. The tide gauge closer to Cancun in Puerto Morelos, in between Cancun and Playa del Carmen, of poor-quality data and time span only 2007 to 2013. Possibly the best tide gauge around Cancun is Progreso, of a time span of data 1952 to 2013 but completeness only 54%, with data basically collected up to 1984 and then only a few, latest measurements, that however, it does not permit to compute any trend.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Progreso Tide Guage Data is availablevii<\/sup><\/a>, but as the study says, it is incomplete. Insofar as any trends can be discerned, however, they certainly do not include accelerating sea level rise, and in the absence of sea level rise acceleration, then it isn\u2019t a function of climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

GOM20: A Stable Geodetic Reference Frame for Subsidence, Faulting, and Sea-Level Rise Studies along the Coast of the Gulf of Mexico<\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n\n

This is the rather comprehensive title to another studyviii<\/sup><\/a> which seeks to draw together the evidence around sea level rise and land faulting and subsidence around the Gulf of Mexico. It was published on 21st<\/sup> January 2020, so is also a relatively recent contribution to our knowledge of this subject.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Coastal sea-level is often monitored by tide gauges. Tide gauge measurements are relative to nearby benchmarks fixed on land, which is historically surveyed by periodic leveling surveys and recently by Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) surveys. To be reproducible and comparable within a large area and over a long-time span, the benchmark and sea-level measurements must be evaluated in a well-defined and consistent frame of reference. However, the research community has difficulties in establishing a unified and consistent datum (reference frame) across the entire GOM region to evaluate long-term land deformation and sea-level changes. Different reference systems (or simply reference points) have been utilized in different areas during different periods by different researchers. Thus, it is a challenge to incorporate the published ground deformation and sea-level change results into a regional reference system. There is considerable disagreement over the rates and spatial and temporal variations of subsidence along the GOM coast, which eventually leads to controversies over the long-term impacts of coastal subsidence and sea-level rise.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

CNC0 is a COCONET station located in Cancun, Mexico. CNC0 recorded steady subsidence of 1.4 mm\/year (2007\u20132019). Another GNSS station (UNPM), located in Puerto Morelos, 35 km south of Cancun, Mexico, also recorded steady subsidence of 1.4 mm\/year. Three selected GNSS stations (TAMI: 2009\u20132019, VIL2: 2003\u20132019, and PROX: 2011\u20132015) for estimating the vertical land movement at four tide gauge sites along the Mexico coast also recorded subsidence rates of approximately 1.5 mm\/year (with respect to GOM20). There is no considerable vertical crust deformation within the southern GOM region and there is no massive groundwater and oil gas extractions along the southern coast of GOM. Thus, the vertical ground movement trends derived from these four GNSS stations provide reliable estimates of the long-term vertical land movements at their corresponding tide gauge sites.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The study makes clear the difficulties involved in assessments of this type, but also, I think, provides fairly clear confirmation that the land in the area in question is subsiding at the rate of 1.4 \u2013 1.5 mm p.a. And that\u2019s nothing to do with climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That leaves one last major claim \u2013 increasing, climate change driven, tropical cyclone activity in the region. Is the claim made out?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate Change Indicators: Tropical Cyclone Activity<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The United States Environmental Protection Agency offers us an indicator which \u201cexamines the frequency, intensity, and duration of hurricanes and other tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico<\/em>.\u201dix<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

That would seem to be a good place to seek confirmation or otherwise of the claim. Helpfully, it treats us to some key bullet points:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since 1878, about six to seven hurricanes have formed in the North Atlantic every year. Roughly two per year make landfall in the United States. The total number of hurricanes (particularly after being adjusted for improvements in observation methods) and the number reaching the United States do not indicate a clear overall trend since 1878<\/em><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

According to the total annual ACE Index, cyclone intensity has risen noticeably over the past 20 years, and eight of the 10 most active years since 1950 have occurred since the mid-1990s\u2026 Relatively high levels of cyclone activity were also seen during the 1950s and 1960s.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The PDI\u2026 shows fluctuating cyclone intensity for most of the mid- to late 20th<\/sup> century, followed by a noticeable increase since 1995 (similar to the ACE Index). These trends are shown with associated variations in sea surface temperature in the tropical North Atlantic for comparison\u2026<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the apparent increases in tropical cyclone activity in recent years\u2026changes in observation methods over time make it difficult to know whether tropical storm activity has actually shown an increase over time.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

That is most certainly not a clear endorsement of any claim that hurricane activity in the area is increasing. In fairness to the Guardian, it does not make that claim. It hints at it by referring to damage caused by Hurrican Wilma and Hurrican Dean and claiming that 2020 was \u201cone of the most active hurricane seasons on record\u201d<\/em>. It\u2019s only actual<\/strong> claim in this regard is that \u201c[h]urricanes are expected to increase in intensity due to higher ocean temperatures, leading to storm surges and exacerbating beach erosion.<\/em>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s not the same as a climate crisis hitting home, which is what the Guardian\u2019s headline claims. And it\u2019s speculation, pure and simple, which can\u2019t be proved one way or the other until after the event.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conclusion<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The claims of a climate crisis in the Cancun area are not made out. Interestingly, although not \u2013 of course \u2013 reflected in the headline, the Guardian does admit that there are other factors at work:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This development <\/em>[rapid population growth and associated infrastructure] is worsening the region\u2019s problems, Escalante says: \u201cI think the way hotels are built has probably contributed more to the loss of the beaches than sea level rise.\u201d Resorts have been built on the dunes, cutting the process of beach formation in a phenomenon known as coastal squeeze.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Guardian article is written from the viewpoint of local hotel owner, Jos\u00e9 Escalante, who is selling the six hotels he co-owns, because of his fears for the future (which, by the way, as well as including climate change and seaweed, also include \u201cthe large chains with few local connections opening restaurants and beach bars, and organised crime, which makes security a worry<\/em>.\u201d<\/em> So, it\u2019s far from being just about climate change, and his decision to sell presupposes that he can find willing buyers \u2013 other businessmen who don\u2019t share his concerns \u2013 about climate change or otherwise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Furthermore:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At least 91 big tourist projects are under construction in the state, according to the Mexican environmental watchdog Bios Pol\u00edtica.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other words, a lot of other businessmen don\u2019t think that the sun is setting on Mexico\u2019s paradise beaches as the \u201cclimate crisis hits home\u201d. The claim is bunkum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Endnotes<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

i<\/a> https:\/\/cliscep.com\/2021\/11\/28\/the-gambia-gambit\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ii<\/a> https:\/\/cliscep.com\/2022\/02\/01\/volte-face\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

iii<\/a> https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2022\/mar\/14\/mexico-cancun-beaches-tourism-sea-levels-climate-crisis-quintana-roo<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

iv<\/a> https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/science-environment-48869100<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

v<\/a> https:\/\/phys.org\/news\/2021-08-huge-blooms-brown-seaweed-piling.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

vi<\/a> https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S2468013319300567<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

vii<\/a>https:\/\/psmsl.org\/data\/obtaining\/stations\/690.php<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

viii<\/a> https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2072-4292\/12\/3\/350\/html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ix<\/a>\u00a0https:\/\/www.epa.gov\/climate-indicators\/climate-change-indicators-tropical-cyclone-activity<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

via Climate Scepticism<\/mark><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

March 14, 2022<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Cancun Con \u2013 Climate Scepticism (cliscep.com)<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I read articles on the Guardian\u2019s website most days, with a view to enjoying and receiving benefit from some occasionally excellent journalism, but mostly to see what\u2019s going on in the world of those who believe we are facing a \u201cclimate crisis\u201d. As a result, I think I have identified a fairly stale but stable 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Negatives","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"28\/06\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The humanitarian crisis in Niger (and beyond) is appalling. 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By using an alliterative title I do not seek to downplay the seriousness of the situation.\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/0pexels-photo-2986359.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/0pexels-photo-2986359.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/0pexels-photo-2986359.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/0pexels-photo-2986359.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/0pexels-photo-2986359.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":211480,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=211480","url_meta":{"origin":192087,"position":4},"title":"Oh No \u2013 The Guardian is too Climate Alarmist even for Michael Mann","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/08\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"h\/t Dr. Willie Soon; WUWT recently covered a Guardian claim that \u201ctotal climate meltdown cannot be stopped\u201c. It turns out this claim is too pessimistic, even for climate scientist\u00a0Michael Mann. https:\/\/twitter.com\/ProfBillMcGuire\/status\/1553857078644596738?s=20&t=CSDbA4VfA1tCo2q84Nni-A Bill McGuire, the scientist quoted by the original Guardian article, seems to feel his words were misinterpreted. The Guardian\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/0Screenshot-2022-08-02-130650.png?fit=837%2C467&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/0Screenshot-2022-08-02-130650.png?fit=837%2C467&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/0Screenshot-2022-08-02-130650.png?fit=837%2C467&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/0Screenshot-2022-08-02-130650.png?fit=837%2C467&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":198444,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=198444","url_meta":{"origin":192087,"position":5},"title":"EU officials being trained to meditate to help fight climate crisis","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/05\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Fireworks illuminate the sky around a huge euro sculpture, designed by German artist Ottmar Hoerl, in front of the headquarters of the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, January 1, 2002. Several thousand people in Frankfurt celebrated at a party on the streets around the ECB to welcome Europe's new\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0rtrbpkk.jpg?fit=1200%2C673&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0rtrbpkk.jpg?fit=1200%2C673&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0rtrbpkk.jpg?fit=1200%2C673&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0rtrbpkk.jpg?fit=1200%2C673&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0rtrbpkk.jpg?fit=1200%2C673&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/192087","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=192087"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/192087\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":192090,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/192087\/revisions\/192090"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/192089"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=192087"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=192087"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=192087"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}