{"id":191660,"date":"2022-03-15T10:35:00","date_gmt":"2022-03-15T09:35:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=191660"},"modified":"2022-03-15T10:35:02","modified_gmt":"2022-03-15T09:35:02","slug":"the-longest-drought","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=191660","title":{"rendered":"The Longest Drought"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Climate scientists reconsider the meaning and implications of drought in light of a changing world<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Peer-Reviewed Publication<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA \u2013 SANTA BARBARA<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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IMAGE: RINGS AROUND LAKE POWELL IN 2017 EVINCE THE DROUGHT THAT HAS SETTLED ON THE AMERICAN WEST. STEVENSON\u2019S STUDY SUGGESTS IT WILL REMAIN WITH US FOR THE REST OF THE CENTURY, IF NOT LONGER.<\/strong> view more <\/a>
CREDIT: PUBLIC DOMAIN<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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Maps of the American West have featured ever darker shades of red over the past two decades. The colors illustrate the unprecedented drought blighting the region. In some areas, conditions have blown past severe and extreme drought into exceptional drought. But rather than add more superlatives to our descriptions, one group of scientists believes it\u2019s time to reconsider the very definition of drought.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Researchers from half a dozen universities investigated what the future might hold in terms of rainfall and soil moisture, two measurements of drought. The team, led by UC Santa Barbara\u2019s Samantha Stevenson<\/a>, found that many regions of the world will enter permanent dry or wet conditions in the coming decades, under modern definitions. The findings, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences<\/em>, reveal the importance of rethinking how we classify these events as well as how we respond to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEssentially, we need to stop thinking about returning to normal as a thing that is possible,\u201d said Stevenson, an assistant professor in the Bren School of Environmental Science & Management. This idea affects both how we define drought and pluvial (abnormally wet) events and how we adapt to a changing environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A drought is when conditions are drier than expected. But this concept becomes vague when the baseline itself is in flux. Stevenson suggests that, for some applications, it\u2019s more productive to frame drought relative to this changing background state, rather than a region\u2019s historical range of water availability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To predict future precipitation and soil moisture levels, Stevenson and her colleagues turned to a new collection of climate models from different research institutions. Researchers had run each model many times with slightly different initial conditions, in what scientists call an \u201censemble.\u201d Since the climate is an inherently chaotic system, researchers use ensembles to account for some of this unpredictability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The results show a world where certain regions are in permanent drought while others experience perennial pluvial for the rest of the 21st<\/sup> century. The team calculated the year in which average soil moisture will exceed the threshold that defines either a megadrought or a megapluvial. \u201cIn other words, at what point do average conditions exceed what we would consider a megadrought if it happened now, [and never return to \u2018normal\u2019]\u201d Stevenson said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The western United States has already crossed this benchmark, and there are other places headed that way as well, including Australia, southern Africa and western Europe. \u201cBut, again, that\u2019s if we use today\u2019s definition of a drought,\u201d Stevenson said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The authors argue that we need to move away from fixed definitions toward a more nuanced account of drought and pluvial. \u201cOur idea of normal is, in a sense, meaningless when \u2018normal\u2019 is continuously changing,\u201d Stevenson added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate models indicate that average soil moisture in many regions will continue to drop. That said, the team\u2019s ensembles suggests that soil moisture will continue to experience drought-related variation similar to today, relative to the ever-drier baseline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fluctuation highlights the need to consider both long term changes and the usual ups and downs associated with historic droughts and pluvials. \u201cThe most important management challenge will be to adjust for the relentless declines in water availability, as this exceeds the expected impact of future megadroughts,\u201d said co-author Julia Cole, a professor at the University of Michigan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Precipitation patterns, on the other hand, will become much more extreme. Warm air holds more moisture than cold air. So as the atmosphere heats up, it\u2019ll be able to suck more moisture from dry areas and dump more precipitation on wet regions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe wanted to consider both precipitation and soil moisture at the same time because that can be important for water management,\u201d Stevenson said. For instance, we will need to adapt infrastructure to more arid conditions in the American West, but that infrastructure will also need to handle more intense rainfall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhen we talk about being in a drought, the presumption is that eventually the drought will end, and conditions will return to normal,\u201d Stevenson said. \u201cBut if we\u2019re never returning to normal, then we need to adapt all of the ways that we manage water with the expectation that normal will continually be drier and drier every year.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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JOURNAL<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ARTICLE TITLE<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Twenty-first century hydroclimate: A continually changing baseline, with more frequent extremes<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

14-Mar-2022<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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via Watts Up With That?<\/mark><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

March 15, 2022<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The Longest Drought<\/a><\/blockquote>