{"id":183303,"date":"2022-01-17T19:24:50","date_gmt":"2022-01-17T18:24:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=183303"},"modified":"2022-01-17T19:24:52","modified_gmt":"2022-01-17T18:24:52","slug":"global-warming-has-saved-500000-lives-in-england-and-wales-in-the-last-20-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=183303","title":{"rendered":"Global warming has saved 500,000 lives in England and Wales in the last 20 years"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By Paul Homewood<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>It\u2019s official; a warmer climate has saved lives in England &amp; Wales:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"477\" data-attachment-id=\"183305\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=183305\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/0image_thumb-90.png?fit=912%2C602&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"912,602\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0image_thumb-90\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/0image_thumb-90.png?fit=723%2C477&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/0image_thumb-90.png?resize=723%2C477&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-183305\" title=\"image\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/0image_thumb-90.png?w=912&amp;ssl=1 912w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/0image_thumb-90.png?resize=300%2C198&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/0image_thumb-90.png?resize=768%2C507&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/0image_thumb-90.png?resize=816%2C539&amp;ssl=1 816w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/0image_thumb-90.png?resize=121%2C80&amp;ssl=1 121w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"1-overview\"><em>1. Overview<\/em><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>This article estimates the change in deaths and hospital admissions associated with rising average temperatures in England and Wales in 2001 to 2020; the trends are relevant to climate change but may also reflect other factors such as improved healthcare and housing.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>These experimental statistics are a step towards regular, transparent Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates of climate-health impacts, which are diagnosis-specific and inform policy-makers and the public. Our methods will develop over time and should be read alongside important government reports and the scientific literature on climate risk.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>We found relatively little increase in deaths caused by warmer weather and a reduction in deaths caused by cold winters, leading to a net decrease in deaths; in contrast, there was a net increase in hospital admissions linked to warmer weather, especially from injuries.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Previous research has linked warmer weather to injuries from outdoor activities, increased violence and mental health problems; direct harm from extreme heat is still less common but this is likely to change over time.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Our findings are consistent with previous research and confirm that the warming trajectory predicted by climate scientists is already affecting health in England and Wales; however, in the UK\u2019s cool-to-temperate climate, the mortality impact is limited and appropriate policy and behaviour changes could mitigate much of the health risk from increasing temperatures.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"5-changes-in-deaths-from-conditions-associated-with-warmer-and-colder-days\"><em>5. Changes in deaths from conditions associated with warmer and colder days<\/em><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>A general decline over the years 2001 to 2020 in the rate of deaths involving causes associated with warm or cold temperatures is shown in Figure 1.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Over a 20-year period the estimated change in deaths associated with warm or cold temperature was a net decrease of 555,103, an average of 27,755 deaths per year (Table 1). A decrease in deaths from outcomes associated with cold temperature greatly outnumbers deaths associated with warm temperature.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Warmer weather in the UK rarely reaches temperatures that cause direct heat-related harms. While the reduction in deaths may relate to climate change, some evidence also suggests the population has reduced vulnerability to cold, see more detail in the&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/peoplepopulationandcommunity\/birthsdeathsandmarriages\/deaths\/articles\/climaterelatedmortalityandhospitaladmissionsenglandandwales\/2001to2020#discussion\"><em>Discussion section<\/em><\/a><em>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"373\" data-attachment-id=\"183306\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=183306\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/0image_thumb-91.png?fit=844%2C435&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"844,435\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0image_thumb-91\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/0image_thumb-91.png?fit=723%2C373&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/0image_thumb-91.png?resize=723%2C373&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-183306\" title=\"image\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/0image_thumb-91.png?w=844&amp;ssl=1 844w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/0image_thumb-91.png?resize=300%2C155&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/0image_thumb-91.png?resize=768%2C396&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/0image_thumb-91.png?resize=816%2C421&amp;ssl=1 816w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/0image_thumb-91.png?resize=155%2C80&amp;ssl=1 155w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"http:\/\/notalotofpeopleknowthat.files.wordpress.com\/2022\/01\/image-91.png\"><em><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/peoplepopulationandcommunity\/birthsdeathsandmarriages\/deaths\/articles\/climaterelatedmortalityandhospitaladmissionsenglandandwales\/2001to2020\">https:\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/peoplepopulationandcommunity\/birthsdeathsandmarriages\/deaths\/articles\/climaterelatedmortalityandhospitaladmissionsenglandandwales\/2001to2020<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>I bet we won\u2019t hear that on the BBC!&#8221;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">via <strong><em><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT<\/mark><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">JANUARY 17, 2022<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-link is-provider-not-a-lot-of-people-know-that wp-block-embed-not-a-lot-of-people-know-that\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<a href=\"https:\/\/notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com\/2022\/01\/17\/global-warming-has-saved-500000-lives-in-england-and-wales-in-the-last-20-years\/\">Global warming has saved 500,000 lives in England and Wales in the last 20&nbsp;years<\/a>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Paul Homewood It\u2019s official; a warmer climate has saved lives in England &amp; Wales: 1. Overview This article estimates the change in deaths and hospital admissions associated with rising average temperatures in England and Wales in 2001 to 2020; the trends are relevant to climate change but may also reflect other factors such as [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-183303","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","has-post-thumbnail","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-LGv","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":281596,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=281596","url_meta":{"origin":183303,"position":0},"title":"No 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https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0Screenshot-2023-10-03-110730.png?fit=1178%2C489&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0Screenshot-2023-10-03-110730.png?fit=1178%2C489&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0Screenshot-2023-10-03-110730.png?fit=1178%2C489&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":413861,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=413861","url_meta":{"origin":183303,"position":1},"title":"Is Rainfall in Wales More\u00a0Extreme?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"19\/11\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"I had a fruitful conversation with Grok, after he\/she\/it mentioned in passing that floods in Monmouth since 2000 had become more frequent because of climate change:","rel":"","context":"In \"extreme rain\"","block_context":{"text":"extreme rain","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=extreme-rain"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQPwDxpEV9y2aySmycCDv9HLjaneBRnRy1v3IS1xBpEfF_wMpWi4UVjy28IEr5wCPXdf4l9pEUdnbyMppGth14-VMimqHB4TOVRHRJpHMj5W6uaKzO522kHbf_5ftC8l-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C631&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQPwDxpEV9y2aySmycCDv9HLjaneBRnRy1v3IS1xBpEfF_wMpWi4UVjy28IEr5wCPXdf4l9pEUdnbyMppGth14-VMimqHB4TOVRHRJpHMj5W6uaKzO522kHbf_5ftC8l-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C631&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQPwDxpEV9y2aySmycCDv9HLjaneBRnRy1v3IS1xBpEfF_wMpWi4UVjy28IEr5wCPXdf4l9pEUdnbyMppGth14-VMimqHB4TOVRHRJpHMj5W6uaKzO522kHbf_5ftC8l-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C631&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, 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The Office for National Statistics said very low\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"BBC\"","block_context":{"text":"BBC","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=bbc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/photo_2023-03-23_14-16-39.jpg?fit=971%2C852&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/photo_2023-03-23_14-16-39.jpg?fit=971%2C852&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/photo_2023-03-23_14-16-39.jpg?fit=971%2C852&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/photo_2023-03-23_14-16-39.jpg?fit=971%2C852&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":210519,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=210519","url_meta":{"origin":183303,"position":3},"title":"Driest Start Since 1976? No, 2010 Was Drier","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"27\/07\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"By Paul Homewood The period between January and June this year was the driest in England since 1976, the Met Office has said. https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/uk-62303330 I have already pointed out that both 1996 and 2010 had drier starts to the year than this year. The BBC, of course, produced the above\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0image-98.png?fit=691%2C768&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0image-98.png?fit=691%2C768&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0image-98.png?fit=691%2C768&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":284933,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=284933","url_meta":{"origin":183303,"position":4},"title":"What Caused Severe Floods In The 1950s, Sky\u00a0News?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"25\/10\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Great floods of 1953 The number of bad floods per year did increase from about three in the late 19th century to more than 20 in the early 21st. 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(The UK series has a similar result).","rel":"","context":"In \"2023\"","block_context":{"text":"2023","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=2023"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0london-rain.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0london-rain.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0london-rain.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0london-rain.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0london-rain.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/183303","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=183303"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/183303\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":183308,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/183303\/revisions\/183308"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=183303"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=183303"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=183303"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}