{"id":180426,"date":"2021-12-31T15:00:00","date_gmt":"2021-12-31T14:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=180426"},"modified":"2021-12-31T15:00:01","modified_gmt":"2021-12-31T14:00:01","slug":"eu-energy-policy-is-a-trainwreck","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=180426","title":{"rendered":"EU Energy Policy Is A Trainwreck"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Paul Homewood<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is how the EU energy crisis looks to a US investment analyst:<\/mark><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investment thesis<\/em><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

The current high energy price environment in Europe risks becoming more or less permanent, given recent events that center around the Ukraine crisis. Europe\u2019s energy security challenges have their root in the 2014 confrontation over Ukraine.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The EU severely misjudged its own natural gas import needs then. It figured that climate change initiatives will severely diminish natural gas demand. It also overestimated LNG availability, especially coming from America\u2019s shale boom. It switched from long-term contracts to spot contracts, believing that natural gas will continue to be in the buyer\u2019s market state for the foreseeable future. Russia was freed up to shift natural gas to other markets or for internal use as a result.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Contrary to past expectations, EU demand for Russian gas increased about 25% in the 2014-2019 period. In response to further delays to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, it seems Russia may have been nudged towards a final decision on the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline project. If it will be built, it will pit the EU and China against each other for gas from the same fields, with China probably favored as a customer by Russia, given closer relations. If this happens, the EU\u2019s energy crisis is set to become permanent, which will devastate its economy.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe\u2019s petrochemical industry is likely to be the first victim, therefore investors should be aware of the more immediate risks. Russian assets are also likely to suffer a temporary downturn in their value if the Ukraine crisis intensifies, but there should be a swift recovery. Beyond its petrochemical industry, the entire economy of the EU is likely to suffer, therefore most companies with exposure to the EU consumer market are at risk of suffering a hit in coming years.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Full analysis here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT<\/mark><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/ift.tt\/3sQQbJM<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

December 31, 2021 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Paul Homewood This is how the EU energy crisis looks to a US investment analyst: Investment thesis The current high energy price environment in Europe risks becoming more or less permanent, given recent events that center around the Ukraine crisis. Europe\u2019s energy security challenges have their root in the 2014 confrontation over Ukraine. The […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-180426","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","has-post-thumbnail","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-KW6","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":237085,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=237085","url_meta":{"origin":180426,"position":0},"title":"Exxon Threatens to Divert Investment Away from the EU over the Energy Windfall Tax","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"31\/12\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"ExxonMobil launches legal challenge to EU\u2019s windfall tax on energy firms","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/image-986.png?fit=1200%2C788&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/image-986.png?fit=1200%2C788&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/image-986.png?fit=1200%2C788&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/image-986.png?fit=1200%2C788&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/image-986.png?fit=1200%2C788&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":205687,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=205687","url_meta":{"origin":180426,"position":1},"title":"Gas drilling projects resurrected around Europe, ignoring EU \u201aadvice\u2018","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"24\/06\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Hands up if you want to risk your country running out of energy supplies! Oh\u2026no takers. But\u2026climate crisis\u2026emissions\u2026blah blah? Not now please, we\u2019re too busy with more urgent matters \u2013 like power for next winter.\u2013 \u2013 \u2013While the European Commission has shared three main ways to reduce Russian energy dependency\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/070eee772943bac3fcb2a00312391530d.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/070eee772943bac3fcb2a00312391530d.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/070eee772943bac3fcb2a00312391530d.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/070eee772943bac3fcb2a00312391530d.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/070eee772943bac3fcb2a00312391530d.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":184657,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=184657","url_meta":{"origin":180426,"position":2},"title":"European Green Energy Crisis is Crushing Metal, Silicon Production","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"25\/01\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"A quadrupling of EU energy prices is crippling energy intensive industries, but the EU sees this as a reason to invest in more renewables. Guest essay by Eric Worrall European silicon output shrinking, metal smelters closing as electricity prices quadruple, trade body warnsProbably something to tackle before those chip fabs\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/0Ursula-Von-Der-Leyen.jpg?fit=740%2C723&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/0Ursula-Von-Der-Leyen.jpg?fit=740%2C723&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/0Ursula-Von-Der-Leyen.jpg?fit=740%2C723&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/0Ursula-Von-Der-Leyen.jpg?fit=740%2C723&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":259041,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=259041","url_meta":{"origin":180426,"position":3},"title":"The EU\u00b4s Net Zero obsession will make Europe poorer, colder and darker.","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"25\/05\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Earlier this month, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen hailed the \u2018amazing progress\u2019 being made by the EU\u2019s Green Deal legislation. It is a funny kind of progress, however.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0874906_XXL.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0874906_XXL.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0874906_XXL.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0874906_XXL.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0874906_XXL.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":225550,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=225550","url_meta":{"origin":180426,"position":4},"title":"No, Politico Europe, Vladimir Putin Is Not Making Europe \u201cGreen\u201d","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"24\/10\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"As war continues in Ukraine, Politico Europe names Russian President Vladimir Putin as their number one leader in the green energy movement.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-1169.png?fit=1200%2C771&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-1169.png?fit=1200%2C771&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-1169.png?fit=1200%2C771&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-1169.png?fit=1200%2C771&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-1169.png?fit=1200%2C771&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":189227,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=189227","url_meta":{"origin":180426,"position":5},"title":"Blood On Their Hands?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"26\/02\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Lest I be misunderstood, I set out clearly and unambiguously at the outset that only one person is responsible for the tragedy going on in Ukraine now, and that person is Vladimir Putin. However, in my view he has had plenty of facilitators. And chief among them are those whose\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0pexels-photo-11284549.jpeg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0pexels-photo-11284549.jpeg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0pexels-photo-11284549.jpeg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0pexels-photo-11284549.jpeg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/180426","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=180426"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/180426\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":180429,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/180426\/revisions\/180429"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=180426"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=180426"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=180426"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}