{"id":157698,"date":"2021-08-17T20:30:34","date_gmt":"2021-08-17T18:30:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=157698"},"modified":"2021-08-17T20:30:36","modified_gmt":"2021-08-17T18:30:36","slug":"new-study-2000-year-precipitation-reconstructions-expose-climate-models-still-of-junk-grade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=157698","title":{"rendered":"New Study: 2000-Year Precipitation Reconstructions Expose Climate Models Still Of Junk Grade"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

A new\u00a0study by Atwood et al (2021)<\/a>\u00a0published in the journal of Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology found there\u2019s \u201cpoor agreement\u201d between precipitation reconstructions and model simulations over the past 2000 years. This means future projections made by current models are unreliable.\u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Die <\/em>kalte Sonne<\/em> here<\/a> reports on a team of scientists who examined 67 tropical hydroclimate records from 55 sites around the world. The key points:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Models and reconstructions don\u2019t agree<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

These comprehensive reconstructions show that from 800 to 1000 CE there was a pronounced drying event relative from the eastern Pacific and parts of Mesoamerica.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also the period \u201c1400\u20131700 CE is marked by pronounced hydroclimate changes across the tropics, including dry and\/or isotopically enriched conditions in South and East Asia, wet and\/or isotopically depleted conditions in the central Andes and southern Amazon in South America, and fresher and\/or isotopically depleted conditions in the Maritime Continent.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The study\u2019s abstract also notes how there\u2019s a glaring disagreement between the simulations done by models and what the reconstructions show: \u201cWe find\u00a0notable dissimilarities<\/strong>\u00a0between the regional hydroclimate changes and global-scale and hemispheric-scale temperature reconstructions, indicating that\u00a0more work needs to be done to understand the mechanisms<\/strong>\u00a0of the widespread tropical hydroclimate changes during the LIA.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The problem, the authors say, is that \u201cclimate model simulations exhibit weak forced long-term tropical rainfall changes over the last millennium\u201d and the reconstructions tell a different story.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Climate forcings not understood<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The inability for the models to perform adequately are likely due to the \u201cinaccurate\u201d use of climate forcings and poor estimation of internal climate variability. Another remote possibility is that the proxy records are simply being misunderstood.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Models not reliable for forecasting<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Die kalte Sonne<\/em> comments: \u201cBecause the models do not correctly reproduce the past, their forecasting quality for the future must be taken very critically. Visions of future horror droughts or Biblical floods should be ignored until the models are able to successfully reproduce the documented global precipitation history.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many more precipitation and temperature proxy studies here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

via NoTricksZone<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/ift.tt\/3CZas2G<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

August 17, 2021 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A new\u00a0study by Atwood et al (2021)\u00a0published in the journal of Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology found there\u2019s \u201cpoor agreement\u201d between precipitation reconstructions and model simulations over the past 2000 years. This means future projections made by current models are unreliable.\u00a0 Die kalte Sonne here reports on a team of scientists who examined 67 tropical hydroclimate records from 55 sites […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-157698","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","has-post-thumbnail","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-F1w","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":160186,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=160186","url_meta":{"origin":157698,"position":0},"title":"Today\u2019s Madagascar Drought Entirely Normal, 2000 Years Of Data Show\u2026Link To Climate Change \u201cNot Correct\u201d","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/09\/2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Madagascar\u2019s current drought is perfectly within normal range. Droughts were even worse in the past, 2000 years of precipitation reconstruction data show\u2026 Linking Madagascar drought to climate change \u201cscientifically not correct\u201d Not surprisingly, there been lots of climate doomsday talk about the drought and hunger situation in Madagascar, all coming\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/0Madagascar-Drought_4.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/0Madagascar-Drought_4.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/0Madagascar-Drought_4.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/0Madagascar-Drought_4.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":307413,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=307413","url_meta":{"origin":157698,"position":1},"title":"3 More New Studies Indicate There Has Been No Climate-Induced Precipitation Trend Since The 1800s","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/03\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"CO2-induced global warming was supposed to intensify the hydrological cycle and extreme precipitation. It hasn\u2019t.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0STATES-SUNSHINE.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0STATES-SUNSHINE.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0STATES-SUNSHINE.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0STATES-SUNSHINE.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0STATES-SUNSHINE.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":371882,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=371882","url_meta":{"origin":157698,"position":2},"title":"New Study: Recent \u2018Unprecedented\u2019 Cloud Cover Decline Driving Modern (And Past) Climate Change","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"25\/03\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201c[T]he increase in absorbed solar radiation is primarily due to natural variations in cloudiness and surface albedo, which have served as the main forcing factors of the flux above the atmosphere over the last 2 decades.\u201d\u00a0\u2013 Diodato et al., 2025","rel":"","context":"In \"absorbed solar radiation (ASR)\"","block_context":{"text":"absorbed solar radiation (ASR)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=absorbed-solar-radiation-asr"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0701622.webp?fit=1200%2C720&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0701622.webp?fit=1200%2C720&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0701622.webp?fit=1200%2C720&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0701622.webp?fit=1200%2C720&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0701622.webp?fit=1200%2C720&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":361990,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=361990","url_meta":{"origin":157698,"position":3},"title":"3 More New Drought and Temperature Reconstructions Do Not Support the Climate Alarm Narrative","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"14\/01\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Studies from Central China, Russia, and Central Europe indicate there was just as much (0r more) warming and drought prior to 1900, or when CO2 concentrations were under 300 ppm.","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co%e2%82%82"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0drought-2048x1365-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0drought-2048x1365-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0drought-2048x1365-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0drought-2048x1365-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0drought-2048x1365-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":230478,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=230478","url_meta":{"origin":157698,"position":4},"title":"Ice Age Temperatures and Precipitation Reconstructed from Earthworm Granules","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"22\/11\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"New method for determination of past climate data on land applied comparatively for the first time \/ Ice Age summers in Central Europe were at times warmer than previously\u00a0known.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-749.png?fit=800%2C529&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-749.png?fit=800%2C529&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-749.png?fit=800%2C529&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-749.png?fit=800%2C529&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":315787,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=315787","url_meta":{"origin":157698,"position":5},"title":"2 Separate Studies Affirm No Net Temperature Or Precipitation Change In Pakistan Since The 1700s","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/04\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201cThe longest 10 years\u2019 warm periods were observed during the early decades of the twentieth century (AD 1918\u20131927\u2026)\u2026\u201d","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0A-Buddhist-stupa-in-the-Swat-Valley-Pakistan.jpg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0A-Buddhist-stupa-in-the-Swat-Valley-Pakistan.jpg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0A-Buddhist-stupa-in-the-Swat-Valley-Pakistan.jpg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0A-Buddhist-stupa-in-the-Swat-Valley-Pakistan.jpg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0A-Buddhist-stupa-in-the-Swat-Valley-Pakistan.jpg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/157698","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=157698"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/157698\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":157703,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/157698\/revisions\/157703"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=157698"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=157698"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=157698"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}