{"id":154512,"date":"2021-08-01T20:04:15","date_gmt":"2021-08-01T18:04:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=154512"},"modified":"2021-08-01T20:04:17","modified_gmt":"2021-08-01T18:04:17","slug":"arctic-climate-change-may-not-be-making-winter-jet-stream-weird-after-all","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=154512","title":{"rendered":"Arctic climate change may not be making winter jet stream \u2018weird\u2019 after all"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"
Arctic sea ice [image credit: Geoscience Daily]<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

New research is pouring cold water on once-hot theory\u2019 \u2013 WashPo. Researchers refer to \u2018overestimation\u2019. (Weird in this context at least tends to mean something like \u2018not well understood\u2019).<\/em>
\u2013 \u2013 \u2013
An influential, highly publicized theory \u2014 that a warming Arctic is causing more intense winter outbreaks of cold and snow in midlatitudes \u2014 is hitting resistance from an ongoing sequence of studies, including the most comprehensive polar modeling to date, says the Washington Post<\/a><\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The idea, first put forth in a 2012 paper by Jennifer Francis, now at the Woodwell Climate Research Center, and Stephen Vavrus, at the University of Wisconsin at Madison, is that two well-established trends \u2014 Arctic amplification (intensified global warming at higher latitudes) and depleted sea ice \u2014 can force the polar jet stream to dip farther south, thus causing more intense bouts of winter weather than might have otherwise occurred.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over the past decade, this hypothesis sparked widespread public interest and scientific debate, as various high-profile cold waves and snow onslaughts hit North America and Eurasia, including a deadly, prolonged cold wave in Texas last February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Winter temperatures over the past three decades have shown cooling in some areas of the northern midlatitudes, especially eastern Asia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the cooling has been far from ubiquitous and the Arctic-midlatitude link has been difficult to detect in simulations by global computer models.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Instead, the models point more strongly toward the gradual, longer-term trend of milder midlatitude winters that one would expect in a human-warmed climate. [Talkshop comment \u2013 or any warmed climate].<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

(A separate line of research is addressing extremes during the summer, such as the unprecedented heat wave that struck the Pacific Northwest in June; see below.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some emerging work, not yet peer-reviewed<\/a>, does reveal faint fingerprints of the Francis-Vavrus hypothesis in new simulations of Arctic and midlatitude winter climates, part of the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt does look like there\u2019s something there, but it looks fairly weak,\u201d James Screen, a climate scientist at the University of Exeter, said in an interview. \u201cThat doesn\u2019t mean it\u2019s not one part of the overall jigsaw.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere\u2019s genuine reason to be concerned about climate change and its effects,\u201d Screen added, \u201cbut an increase in the frequency in cold events would not be at the top of my list.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Screen has published several related studies with Russell Blackport, now at Environment and Climate Change Canada, over the past two years. The title of one of their latest, published in April<\/a> in the Journal of Climate, is itself an assertion: \u201cObserved Statistical Connections Overestimate the Causal Effects of Arctic Sea Ice Changes on Midlatitude Winter Climate.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this study and others, Screen and Blackport suggest that the connection between Arctic sea ice loss and extreme midlatitude events is real, but not necessarily causal. Instead, they argue, a third factor \u2014 most likely large-scale changes in atmospheric circulation that may not be permanent \u2014 is probably driving both the sea ice loss and the extreme winter events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Full article here<\/a><\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

via Tallbloke\u2019s Talkshop<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/ift.tt\/2V3nMBZ<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

August 1, 2021<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

New research is pouring cold water on once-hot theory\u2019 \u2013 WashPo. Researchers refer to \u2018overestimation\u2019. (Weird in this context at least tends to mean something like \u2018not well understood\u2019).\u2013 \u2013 \u2013An influential, highly publicized theory \u2014 that a warming Arctic is causing more intense winter outbreaks of cold and snow in midlatitudes \u2014 is hitting […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-154512","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","has-post-thumbnail","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-Ec8","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":251869,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=251869","url_meta":{"origin":154512,"position":0},"title":"Researchers investigate the \u201cWarm Arctic-Cold Continent\u201d (WACC) climate theory","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/04\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Their analysis relates to 1979-2018 only. Media talk of \u2019stranded\u2018 polar bears, not mentioned in the study, ignores the fact that they are\u00a0talented swimmers. The unresolved issue of the wavier jet stream is noted in the study, but that\u2019s all. They admit prediction of where it\u2019s all going is difficult.","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic warming\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic warming","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-warming"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0rachel-arctic-snow-scenery.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0rachel-arctic-snow-scenery.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0rachel-arctic-snow-scenery.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0rachel-arctic-snow-scenery.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0rachel-arctic-snow-scenery.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":363765,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=363765","url_meta":{"origin":154512,"position":1},"title":"Al Gore\u2019s \u2018Climate Reality Project\u2019 claims: \u2018Super Cold? Thank the Climate Crisis\u2019 \u2013 \u2018As counter intuitive as it may seem\u2026Arctic warming appears to be\u2019 altering \u2018polar jet stream\u2026sending bitterly cold Arctic air diving unusually far south\u2019","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"28\/01\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Despite the overall trend of warming winters, cold weather and snow can (and does) still happen as the globe continues to warm \u2013 as we\u2019ve seen just this week and sometimes in areas not accustomed to it. In fact, as counter intuitive as it may seem, rapid warming in the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Al Gore\"","block_context":{"text":"Al Gore","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=al-gore"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0636517827687329793-AP-CORRECTION-Russia-Cold-Weather.webp?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0636517827687329793-AP-CORRECTION-Russia-Cold-Weather.webp?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0636517827687329793-AP-CORRECTION-Russia-Cold-Weather.webp?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0636517827687329793-AP-CORRECTION-Russia-Cold-Weather.webp?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0636517827687329793-AP-CORRECTION-Russia-Cold-Weather.webp?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":186291,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=186291","url_meta":{"origin":154512,"position":2},"title":"Newsweek: Texas so cold that trees are exploding","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/02\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Austin, Texas. Historic Arctic blast, winter storm. House under snow. Newsweek\u00a0reports\u00a0that an \u201carctic cold front in north Texas lowered temperatures to a point that caused trees to explode, prompting residents to compare the resulting noises to \u201cgunshots.\u201d \u201cWe listened to them all night. Sounds like gunshots going off,\u201d recounted one\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0Texas-house-frozen-ice-flag.jpg?fit=825%2C580&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0Texas-house-frozen-ice-flag.jpg?fit=825%2C580&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0Texas-house-frozen-ice-flag.jpg?fit=825%2C580&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0Texas-house-frozen-ice-flag.jpg?fit=825%2C580&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":363524,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=363524","url_meta":{"origin":154512,"position":3},"title":"No USA Today, Associated Press, and Others, Record Cold and Snowfall in the United States Aren\u2019t Caused by Climate Change","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"26\/01\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Lately, a series of mainstream news outlets, including USA Today, AP News, BBC Future, and Fast Company, have churned out articles claiming that January 2025\u2019s record cold and heavy snowfall across the United States are to greater or lesser degrees due to climate change, or at least that such a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Associated Press\"","block_context":{"text":"Associated Press","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=associated-press"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0polar-vortex-132409047_m.jpg?fit=1200%2C1067&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0polar-vortex-132409047_m.jpg?fit=1200%2C1067&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0polar-vortex-132409047_m.jpg?fit=1200%2C1067&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0polar-vortex-132409047_m.jpg?fit=1200%2C1067&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0polar-vortex-132409047_m.jpg?fit=1200%2C1067&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":236200,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=236200","url_meta":{"origin":154512,"position":4},"title":"\u201cGlobal Warming Causes Cold Weather\u201d Theory Rises From The Dead Again!","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"26\/12\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"This pile of fraud comes around every winter","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/image-815.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/image-815.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/image-815.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/image-815.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/image-815.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":173752,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=173752","url_meta":{"origin":154512,"position":5},"title":"Arctic Sea Ice Extent Currently Second-Highest In 15 Years, And Growing\u2026","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"19\/11\/2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Arctic sea ice data is in plain view of the world\u2019s media, yet outlets would still rather quote activist-scientists than show an unambiguous chart. Articles of \u201ccatastrophic ice melt\u201d still pepper the global news feeds, even as signs point to a cyclical shift in the northern polar region. I\u2019m being\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/0CICE_curve_thick_LA_EN_20211118.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/0CICE_curve_thick_LA_EN_20211118.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/0CICE_curve_thick_LA_EN_20211118.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/154512","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=154512"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/154512\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":154516,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/154512\/revisions\/154516"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=154512"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=154512"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=154512"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}