{"id":152942,"date":"2021-07-24T12:53:25","date_gmt":"2021-07-24T10:53:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=152942"},"modified":"2021-07-24T12:53:27","modified_gmt":"2021-07-24T10:53:27","slug":"ever-ascendant-true-cost-of-unreliable-wind-solar-continues-to-rise-unabated","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=152942","title":{"rendered":"Ever Ascendant: True Cost of Unreliable Wind & Solar Continues to Rise Unabated"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

If wind and solar power were truly competitive with conventional generators, there would be no need for even a nickel in subsidies. The fact they continue unabated says it all.<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Claims that the cost of wind and solar generation are falling don\u2019t stand a minute\u2019s serious scrutiny. One group that has applied a blowtorch to the \u2018wind and solar are free and getting cheaper all the time\u2019 narrative is the Global Warming Policy Forum. Here\u2019s Dr John Constable explaining why the true cost of unreliable wind and solar is always in the ascendant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fact checking IRENA: Ignore the renewables industry PR and turn to empirical data<\/strong>
Global Warming Policy Forum
John Constable
23 June 2021<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In sharp contrast to claims by the renewables lobby, the costs of wind and solar energy are not falling, empirical data shows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

When soap bubbles burst they vanish in an instant. Financial bubbles by their nature take a little longer to deflate, and doubtless the renewables industry bubble will take several years, not least because it has vested interests puffing the sector harder and faster than the realists, such as ourselves, can pick holes. But eventually, the lobbyists will run out of breath and the tissue of propaganda will be more holes than substance. The wretched pretence will collapse in an embarrassing mess.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We don\u2019t know precisely when this will happen, but China seems to be betting on the later 2020s, just before it has undertaken to reach peak emissions, giving it plenty of time to blame the West for breach of promise and return to carbon business as usual. That seems like a plausible date to us too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the meantime, analysts and market-watchers are confronted by a confusing storm of argument bringing prolonged gales of high temperature Public Relations, such as the extravagantly upbeat claims of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) published yesterday, and brief but chillingly cold showers of empirical information regarding the underlying high and increasing costs of renewable energy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the one hand, for example, IRENA claims, though without evidence to us, that \u201cnew solar and wind projects are increasingly undercutting even the cheapest [\u2026] of existing coal-fired plants\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other we see the striking paper in the Harvard Business Review indicating that the solar industry has failed to correctly price-in the cost of recycling its own waste, meaning that \u201cthe sheer volume of discarded panels will soon pose a risk of existentially damaging proportions\u201d, increasing the Levelised Cost of Electricity \u201cto four times the current projection\u201d, with the result that the \u201cthe economics of solar \u2013 so bright-seeming from the vantage point of 2021 \u2013 would darken quickly as the industry sinks under the weight of its own trash\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And, in fact, even the current economics don\u2019t look that promising, as can be inferred from recent Bloomberg and Financial Times\u2019 reports of significant rising costs for steel, polysilicon and freight, resulting in an 18 per cent fall in the value of solar company shares.<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nor is wind power exempt from these concerns, as is evident in Bloomberg\u2019s report in early May this year that Vestas would have to increase its wind turbine prices due, amongst other things, to rising costs for steel \u2013 up 25% in China this year. <\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Furthermore, as readers of the work of Professor Gordon Hughes for both GWPF and the UK\u2019s Renewable Energy Foundation will know, capex is in a sense the wind industry\u2019s least concern, with long term opex costs, particularly offshore, looking all but certain to sink the vast flagship wind projects whose low bids for guaranteed prices are the toast of European governments. The champagne will have gone distinctly flat by the later 2020s when taxpayers are called upon to bail out failing wind farms or face blackouts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

None of these empirically grounded criticisms of renewables should be surprising to anyone who had a basic understanding of the physics of wind and the solar flux; these are high entropy energy flows, close to random heat, and require large masses of capital equipment to correct the defect and produce a low entropy supply to consumers. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is an intrinsically low productivity energy sector, with consequently high costs.<\/span><\/em><\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And even if you choose not to think along these abstract lines, the empirical information in company accounts, such as that examined by Professor Hughes and my GWPF colleague Andrew Montford should be utterly conclusive. The costs of renewables are just not falling in the way claimed by industry lobbyists. The real wonder is why anyone believed that guff in the first place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And, for the avoidance of doubt, there is no need to take this post\u2019s word for granted or to trust that of Gordon Hughes or Andrew Montford. Analysts and investors, politicians and civil servants, are invited to conduct their investigations and come to their own conclusions. That is the way that financial bubbles burst, one realistic and inquiring mind at a time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Global Warming Policy Forum<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

via STOP THESE THINGS<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/ift.tt\/3BylfzX<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

July 24, 2021<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

If wind and solar power were truly competitive with conventional generators, there would be no need for even a nickel in subsidies. The fact they continue unabated says it all. Claims that the cost of wind and solar generation are falling don\u2019t stand a minute\u2019s serious scrutiny. One group that has applied a blowtorch to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-152942","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","has-post-thumbnail","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-DMO","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":275703,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=275703","url_meta":{"origin":152942,"position":0},"title":"Mythbusting: There\u2019s No Way Wind & Solar Are Cheaper Than Coal &\u00a0Gas","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"26\/08\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The fact that every country that\u2019s increased reliance on wind and solar is suffering rocketing power prices is incontrovertible. And that simple relationship puts paid to the myth that wind and solar are cheaper than coal and gas, principally because it\u2019s heavily subsidised wind and solar that are (occasionally) displacing\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Renewables\"","block_context":{"text":"Renewables","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=renewables"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00721-F2-1-scaled-2.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00721-F2-1-scaled-2.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00721-F2-1-scaled-2.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00721-F2-1-scaled-2.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00721-F2-1-scaled-2.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":262763,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=262763","url_meta":{"origin":152942,"position":1},"title":"Replacing Coal Power with Wind and Solar Increases Net CO2 Emissions","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"19\/06\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The most significant effects of adding wind and solar power to any grid are to destabilize it and greatly to increase the cost of electricity for homes and businesses everywhere.","rel":"","context":"In \"CO2\"","block_context":{"text":"CO2","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=co2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0renewable_energy_dramatic.0-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C817&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0renewable_energy_dramatic.0-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C817&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0renewable_energy_dramatic.0-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C817&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0renewable_energy_dramatic.0-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C817&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0renewable_energy_dramatic.0-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C817&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":221740,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=221740","url_meta":{"origin":152942,"position":2},"title":"Deliberately Trashed: Why Biden\u2019s Subsidised Wind & Solar Push Is Destroying America","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/10\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"America\u2019s grid is in decline and about to get far worse due to policies that 1) reward unreliable electricity, 2) prematurely shut down coal plants, 3) criminalize nuclear, and 4) force EV use.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-47.png?fit=700%2C1050&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-47.png?fit=700%2C1050&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-47.png?fit=700%2C1050&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-47.png?fit=700%2C1050&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":217477,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=217477","url_meta":{"origin":152942,"position":3},"title":"Transmission Loss: $Billions Squandered Connecting Remote & Intermittent Wind & Solar","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/09\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Untold $billions are being squandered to connect unreliable, intermittent and diffuse, wind and solar to power grids; grids that were working just fine before the unreliable turned up.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-289.png?fit=400%2C383&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":249299,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=249299","url_meta":{"origin":152942,"position":4},"title":"Night-Time & Calm Weather: Why Intermittent Wind & Solar Are Driving Power Prices Into Orbit","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"23\/03\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Chaotically intermittent wind and solar are at the heart of surging retail power bills. 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