# Outlook: Pacific El Niño and Atlantic Niña

- Link: https://climatescience.press/?p=457605
- Published: 2026-07-24T12:14:04-07:00
- Author: uwe.roland.gross

![](https://i0.wp.com/climatescience.press/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/0-Outlook-
Pacific-El-Nino-and-Atlantic-Nina.jpg?resize=840%2C564&ssl=1)

From [Science Matters](https://rclutz.com/2026/07/18/outlook-pacific-el-nino-and-atlantic-la-nina/)

By [Ron Clutz](https://rclutz.com/author/ronaldrc/)

![](https://i0.wp.com/climatescience.press/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/image-194.
png?resize=840%2C559&ssl=1)

**A map of global sea surface temperature anomalies on July 15, 2026, showing a 
significant region of below-average sea surface temperatures off the western coast
of Africa. © NOAA Office of Satellite and Product Operations, arrow added using 
Canva**

There’s been much ado about a strong El Niño, but less is heard about the appearance
of a sister anomaly Atlantic Niña.  What happens to summer storm activity when both
are on stage?  Ben Cost does a good job of pulling together the implications in 
his NY Post article[** El Niño’s sister La Niña has arrived in the Atlantic — here’s what that means for summer weather**](https://nypost.com/2026/07/17/science/could-el-nino-and-atlantic-nina-join-forces-to-stop-hurricanes/#).
Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images.

_The **extremely strong El Niño brewing** in the South Pacific isn’t the only unusual
weather pattern on the horizon.  Meteorological experts warn that the oceanic anomaly’s
sister —  **Atlantic Niña** — could be **rearing its head** in the tropical part
of The Pond, potentially helping curtail the number of storms we’ll see this season,
according to [Severe Weather Europe.](https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/rare-atlantic-nina-joins-super-el-nino-atmospheric-shield-hurricane-season-winter-united-states-canada-fa/)_

![](https://i0.wp.com/climatescience.press/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/image-195.
png?resize=840%2C496&ssl=1)

A map of global sea surface temperature anomalies on July 15, 2026, shows a significant
region of below-average sea surface temperatures off the western coast of Africa.

_This climate pattern is** similar to La Niña** — the cold phase of the El Niño 
Southern Oscillation (ENSO) — in that both** cause temperature plunges** below average.
The difference is that this big chill affects the **eastern equatorial Atlantic 
Ocean** instead of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, potentially altering
wind and rainfall across the tropics, [per Climate.org.](https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/atlantic-nina-verge-developing-heres-why-we-should-pay-attention)_

![](https://i0.wp.com/climatescience.press/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/image-196.
png?resize=840%2C444&ssl=1)

These two anomalies appear to work on opposite poles (warm vs. cold), but they are
actually perfectly aligned in their atmospheric impact.

_Should surface temps on the Atlantic Ocean hover at **0.9 degrees Fahrenheit below
average** for at least two overlapping seasons, this could **mark just the sixth
Atlantic Niña in the last four decades.**_

_The sibling anomaly** El Niño,** meanwhile, causes preternaturally **warm temperatures
on the Pacific Ocean’s surface** with forecasters predicting that this particular
version could be up to [6.5 degrees warmer](https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/07/this-could-be-the-strongest-el-nino-on-record/)
than average, **potentially** making it the **strongest El Niño on record.**_

_Despite being polar opposites on the thermometer, these temp-affecting twins are“
perfectly aligned in their atmospheric impact,” long-range forecaster Andrej Flis
wrote for Severe Weather Europe._

_This means that **both will help curb hurricanes — but in different ways.** El 
Niño produces **high wind shear and sinking dry conditions over the Atlantic and
Caribbean** — where wind shear is already the second highest on record for July —
potentially nipping the storm systems in the bud, [according to Weather.com.](https://weather.com/2026/07/08/storms/hurricane/2026-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook-csu-july-el-nino)_

![](https://i0.wp.com/climatescience.press/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/image-197.
png?resize=840%2C382&ssl=1)

_This prophylactic effect is evident in the dramatic reduction in the **number of
forecasted storms,** which currently totals** just nine**, according to[ Colorado State University’s tropical meteorology project team](https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2026-07.pdf)._

_Of these, only four are projected to become hurricanes, while just one will attain
Category 3 status or stronger, marking **five fewer storms and three fewer hurricanes
than an average season.**_

_El Niño’s sister system, meanwhile, literally throws cold water on cyclones. **
Cooler ocean temps in the Atlantic prevent the heat and moisture buildup** required
for thunderstorm buildup, [according to The Conversation.](https://theconversation.com/what-is-an-atlantic-nina-how-la-ninas-smaller-cousin-could-affect-hurricane-season-237425)_

_It will be interesting if these sibling systems have double the preventive impact
come hurricane season._

![](https://i0.wp.com/climatescience.press/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/image-198.
png?resize=840%2C537&ssl=1)

Despite the forecast covering the August-January period, we are already observing
this in July. If we look at the seasonal forecast, the latest data clearly shows
a large area of below-normal tropical activity across the MDR and the Atlantic region.
At the same time, we see enhanced activity in the Pacific, aided by the low pressure
and rising air associated with El Niño.

_So far, **Tropical Storm Arthur** was the **only named storm** to form in the Atlantic
Basin **before July 17** — one fewer than during and average year, [Gizmodo reported.](https://gizmodo.com/a-rare-atlantic-nina-is-emerging-amid-a-super-el-nino-heres-what-that-means-2000786538)_

_And while it caused flash flooding and tornadoes to lash the south, this so-called**
superstorm fizzled** before long.   Meanwhile, there are no signs of an **Atlantic
hurricane**; the **first one usually** forms **by August 11.**_

![](https://i0.wp.com/climatescience.press/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/image-199.
png?resize=840%2C338&ssl=1)

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