# Climate- Science.press Global warming, climate change, all these things are just a dream come true for politicians. I deal with evidence and not with frightening computer models because the seeker after truth does not put his faith in any consensus. The road to the truth is long and hard, but this is the road we must follow. People who describe the unprecedented comfort and ease of modern life as a climate disaster, in my opinion have no idea what a real problem is. - Site: https://climatescience.press/ ## Ancient Stalagmites Reveal When the Global Monsoon Breaks Its Seesaw - Link: https://climatescience.press/?p=481902 - Published: 2026-10-24T09:19:56-07:00 - Author: uwe.roland.gross ![Infographic titled 'Ancient Stalagmites Reveal When the Global Monsoon Breaks Its Seesaw' illustrating isotopic archives of rainfall, atmosphere, and climate connections, featuring a diagram of stalagmite layers, a world map highlighting South America and Asia, and details on monsoon patterns and growth rates over 120,000 years.](https://i0.wp.com/climatescience.press/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/0-Ancient- Stalagmites-Reveal-When-the-Global-Monsoon-Breaks-Its-Seesaw.jpg?resize=840%2C564& ssl=1) **_AI generated by Grok_** **A new 450,000- year speleothem (stalagmite) record from the Peruvian Andes shows that the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) and Asian monsoon were mostly out of phase (a “seesaw”), but occasionally synchronized, both strengthening or both weakening, especially during glacial terminations and warm intervals.** The study, published in Nature as **“Interhemispheric monsoon dynamics over the past 450,000 years”** (Olson, E. J. et al., 2026), is based on oxygen -isotope ( δ¹⁸O) data from Andean cave stalagmites (including sites such as Huagapo and Pacupahuain in the Junín region of the Amazon Basin and Andes). These records track monsoon intensity via the** “amount effect”**, in which **heavier rainfall** produces lower δ¹⁸O values. Uranium -thorium dating provided precise ages. Researchers combined the cave data with a nearby Lake Junín glacial/sediment record to isolate a regional SASM signal from local effects. ### **Key findings** * **Dominant pattern (seesaw):** For most of the past ~450,000 years (spanning multiple glacial–interglacial cycles), SASM and Asian monsoon strength varied in antiphase. When one strengthened, the other weakened. This matches Milankovitch orbital forcing (especially precession, ~21,000- year cycles), which shifts seasonal solar insolation between hemispheres and supports the idea of a coherent **“global monsoon”** system.[⁠](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-026-03285-8) * **Exceptions (synchrony):** About ten intervals exceeded a synchronicity threshold( identified via running Pearson correlations and mean comparisons of the records). These include glacial terminations (abrupt ends of ice ages) and some warm interglacial and interstadial periods. Synchronous drying occurred during terminations and several warm intervals; synchronous wet conditions were rarer (mainly in the penultimate glacial, MIS 6). In these windows the monsoons moved together rather than opposing each other.[⁠](https://communities.springernature.com/posts/450-000-years-of-the-global-monsoon-the-history-of-water-availability-on-our-planet) * **Drivers of the exceptions:** These events coincide with rapidly changing boundary conditions, rising greenhouse- gas levels, shifting cross- equatorial thermal gradients, anomalous Atlantic and Pacific sea- surface temperatures, ice- sheet collapse, and disruptions to ocean circulation (e.g., Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation). Model comparisons support links between high- latitude ocean changes and tropical rainfall reorganization. ### **Broader implications** The global monsoon system supplies freshwater to more than 2.7 billion people. The record shows it is not rigidly locked to orbital cycles alone; it can reorganize for millennia when ice sheets, greenhouse gases, and ocean temperatures change quickly. Synchronous droughts across hemispheres would strain water availability on both sides of the equator. The findings provide a long- term natural experiment relevant to understanding monsoon responses under rapid modern forcing.[⁠](https://communities.springernature.com/posts/450-000-years-of-the-global-monsoon-the-history-of-water-availability-on-our-planet) Related coverage and summaries appear in _Nature_ research briefings, Springer Nature Communities (“Behind the Paper”), Scienmag, and similar outlets; the primary paper is in _Nature_ (doi: 10.1038/s41586-026-11166-3). Data are archived at NOAA NCEI. ![Topographic map of a mountainous region in South America showing elevation changes, with a highlighted lake labeled 'd' and marked locations 'a', 'b', and 'c'. An inset map indicates the region's location within South America.](https://i0.wp.com/climatescience. press/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/image-174.png?resize=840%2C536&ssl=1) Location of caves where speleothems were recovered. Credit: _Nature_ (2026). DOI: 10.1038/s41586-026-11166-3 **This research relates to climate change primarily by showing how the global monsoon system has responded to rapid shifts in planetary boundary conditions in the past, conditions that are analogous in some ways to those changing today.** ### **Core relevance** The 450,000- year speleothem record demonstrates that the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) and Asian monsoon are usually out of phase (a “seesaw” driven largely by orbital- Milankovitch insolation differences). However, they occasionally synchronize, both strengthening or, more concerningly, both weakening, during intervals of rapid change. These synchronicity events (about ten identified) cluster around glacial terminations and warm interglacial/interstadial periods.[⁠](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-11166-3) **Key drivers of those exceptions include:** * Rising greenhouse- gas concentrations * Changes in cross- equatorial thermal gradients * Anomalous sea- surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Pacific * Disruptions to ocean circulation (including Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, collapse or weakening) In short, when ice sheets, carbon dioxide levels, ocean temperatures, and circulation shift quickly, the global monsoon can reorganize for millennia rather than simply following the **slow orbital “clock”**. Synchronous drying across both hemispheres would reduce freshwater availability in major monsoon regions at the same time. ### **Link to present- day and future climate change** * **Greenhouse gases and rapid forcing:** Past synchronous events occurred when greenhouse gases rose (though more slowly than today). Modern CO₂ is increasing far faster than during most of the last 450,000 years. The paper notes that the monsoon is not rigidly locked to orbital cycles; it can flip modes when boundary conditions change rapidly, exactly the situation under (_anthropogenic) _warming. * **Ocean circulation risks:** Model comparisons (including AMOC “hosing” experiments) link high- latitude ocean changes to tropical rainfall reorganization. Ongoing observations and projections of AMOC weakening under climate change therefore raise the possibility of monsoon disruptions that are more simultaneous and less“ seesaw- like.” * **Water security:** Monsoons supply freshwater to more than 2.7 billion people. Historical evidence of multi- millennial synchronous droughts underscores the risk that future reorganization could strain water resources across both hemispheres rather than allowing one region’s gains to offset another’s losses. * **Not a direct prediction:** The study is a paleoclimate reconstruction, not a future forecast. Orbital forcing today is different from glacial terminations, and human- driven change includes additional factors (aerosols, land- use change, etc.). Still, it supplies a long- term natural experiment showing the monsoon system’s sensitivity to fast shifts in ice, greenhouse gases, SSTs, and ocean circulation, the same variables that climate models project will continue changing this century. In essence, the stalagmite record strengthens the scientific case that rapid climate change can push the global monsoon beyond its usual interhemispheric balance, with potentially widespread impacts on rainfall patterns and water availability. It does not claim that today’s warming will automatically produce the exact same synchronicity events, but it shows that such reorganization is physically possible and has occurred under analogous (if slower) past conditions. _______________________________________________ **Interhemispheric monsoon dynamics over the past 450,000 years** ### **Abstract (key points)** The global monsoon system supplies freshwater to much of Earth’s biota and human population. **Milankovitch orbital variations** in solar insolation are expected to drive long- term changes in the monsoon, and internal factors (ice cover, sea- surface temperatures) can also influence it. Southern Hemisphere monsoon records spanning **multiple glacial– interglacial cycles** have been scarce. This study presents a **450,000- year record of South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) variability **based on speleothem (stalagmite) oxygen- isotope (δ¹⁸O) data from the Amazon Basin (Peruvian Andes caves). * SASM variability and the Asian monsoon have been** strikingly out of phase** for most of this interval (a classic interhemispheric “seesaw”). * Occasional **synchronous behaviour** occurs in regions affected by both monsoons. * A **synchronicity threshold** is exceeded during _ten events_, including glacial terminations. * Comparison with palaeoclimate forcings indicates that greenhouse- gas concentrations, cross- equatorial thermal gradients, and Atlantic and Pacific sea- surface temperatures probably influence these synchronous intervals. The record shows that the global monsoon can reorganize itself, especially during periods of rapidly changing planetary boundary conditions. ### Additional details from the paper and related coverage * **Data & methods:** Speleothem δ¹⁸O records (validated by modern cave monitoring) combined with a nearby Lake Junín glacial record to separate local vs. regional signals. Uranium-thorium dating provides precise chronology. Compared with established Asian monsoon speleothem records (e.g., Cheng et al.). * **Figures (from the page):** Location of caves; assessment of local vs. regional SASM signals; comparisons with other records; synchronicity events vs. climate forcings; Pearson correlations between Andean and Asian records; tropical precipitation maps and modelled response to AMOC collapse. * **Data & code availability:** Data at NOAA NCEI ([doi:10.25921/ecnf-7908](https://doi.org/10.25921/ecnf-7908)); analysis code on CodeOcean; related model data on Zenodo. The full text is behind a paywall/subscription. Summaries and “Behind the Paper” discussions are available via _Nature_ research briefings and Springer Nature Communities. **Journal:** [Nature](https://phys.org/journals/nature/), 658, pages 943–950 (2026) **DOI:** [10.1038/s41586-026-11166-3](https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-11166-3) **Published:** 14 October 2026 **Authors:** [E. J. Olson](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-11166-3#auth-E__J_-Olson-Aff1), [D. P. Gillikin](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-11166-3#auth-D__P_-Gillikin-Aff1), [D. Parmenter](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-11166-3#auth-D_-Parmenter-Aff2), [S. Burns](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-11166-3#auth-S_-Burns-Aff3), [A. Verheyden](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-11166-3#auth-A_-Verheyden-Aff1), [O. Miyawaki](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-11166-3#auth-O_-Miyawaki-Aff1), [M. Vuille](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-11166-3#auth-M_-Vuille-Aff4), [L. F. Piccirillo](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-11166-3#auth-L__F_-Piccirillo-Aff1), [R. Castro](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-11166-3#auth-R_-Castro-Aff5), [G. Yurivilca](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-11166-3#auth-G_-Yurivilca-Aff6), [R. L. Edwards](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-11166-3#auth-R__L_-Edwards-Aff2)& [D. T. Rodbell](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-11166-3#auth-D__T_-Rodbell-Aff1) ![A horseback rider in a cowboy hat and coat, contemplatively looking off into the distance, with text overlay questioning when the climate has ever remained unchanged in Earth's history.](https://i0.wp.com/climatescience.press/wp-content/uploads/2026/ 10/552834504_10172312089325564_1459984696695593078_n.jpg?resize=750%2C769&ssl=1) ## Greenhushing (climate loses its message) - Link: https://climatescience.press/?p=481881 - Published: 2026-10-24T06:50:09-07:00 - Author: uwe.roland.gross ![A megaphone with a zipper design surrounded by protest signs advocating for climate action, including messages like 'Climate Action Now,' 'Protect Our Future,' 'Hold Polluters Accountable,' 'Listen to the Earth,' and 'Act Now.'](https://i0.wp.com/ climatescience.press/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/0-Greenhushing-climate-loses-its- message.jpg?resize=840%2C473&ssl=1) **_AI generated by Meta_** From [Master Resource](https://www.masterresource.org/new-york-times/green-washing-hushing-continues/) By Robert Bradley Jr. > “Overall, Democrats have softened some of the rhetoric they think may have alienated > voters in the Biden years — on climate and gender issues in particular….” – David > Wallace-Wells, _New York Times_ (October 14, 2026) It’s election season. A major issue is high energy prices. “Climate change” is way down the concern list, knowing that climate mitigation (anti- fossil- fuel) policies _increase_ prices. Thus, the green hushing continues. Climate messaging is a mess–and in a funk (see Appendix below). The leading critic of green hushing, Joe Romm, [committed suicide](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/06/climate/joe-romm-dead.html) to escape the issue. “The problem is not denial nor this strawman description of‘ climate messaging’ that no one I know actually does— and I’ve been doing this for three decades,” he complained. > The problems are 1) the biggest disinformation campaign in human history, 2) which > is amplified by every major social media site and 3) which combined outspend the > money disseminating any of the climate messaging by 20x to 100x. The world is > not subjected to bad climate messaging so much as it subjected to an open fire > hydrant of lies on the one hand and climate silence on the other. Or maybe the public is more attune to their priorities than this “expert” pontificator. And the climate alarm is exaggerated. **Election Update** The Guardian [gave a current](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/oct/16/midterms-voters-climate-crisis-candidates?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20261017%20Tuesday%20newsletter&utm_source=e007cd04ee&utm_source=Weekly+News+from+Yale+Climate+Connections&utm_campaign=02986f7ddc-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2026_10_19_03_11&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_-02986f7ddc-59262417) on Greenhushing as if it was an anomaly. > … the unfolding climate crisis, and the imperative to transition to cleaner, less > volatile forms of energy, has been starkly absent on campaign trai s before the > midterms in three weeks’ time. Even among previously pro-green Democrats, 2026 > has seen a widespread climate omerta. Three examples were given. > “Look, I’m not going to defend the Green New Deal,” Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic > US Senate candidate in Michigan, [told](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/green-new-dodge-el-sayed-runs-from-policy-newly-surfaced-deleted-posts-show-years-support) > Fox News in August, after previously campaigning for 100% renewable energy. > Jon Ossoff, seeking to retain his Senate seat in Georgia, has ditched mentions > of the environment in favor of focusing on the Iran war and inflation. > … James Talarico, another leading Democratic Senate hope who previously compared > oil and gas to 1980s cassette tapes that are “not gonna last”, has struck a very > different tone in this campaign. “I support our oil and gas industry,” Talarico, > aiming for a first Democratic win in Texas in decades, [said last month](https://www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/talarico-slams-paxton-data-centers-defends-filing-2021-bill-require-reductions-greenhouse-gas-emissions/).“ > I had family members who worked in the industry. I went to public schools here > in Texas, funded by the oil and gas industry.” “Head exploding,” as Joe Romm used to exclaim. Sarah Peach at Yale Climate Connections issued a warning: > But when candidates simply mirror what they think the public wants, that can lead > to a vicious cycle. The public [is influenced by what elite politicians say](https://us.list-manage.com/LdmSgjFjY3K?e=81ff48b966&c2id=f88da80932d588f551d58a0610293ac2&m=r2O5CSNCQm8E_4j11qk8Ht_anWVkTSAo4kxU_SCeUGf84V6Nq3KoJNYWdL4=), > so when candidates don’t prioritize climate change, the public may see it as less > important, too. **Conclusion** Once again, reality has set in. The magical thinking that wind, solar, and batteries are the energy future is busted. Affordability is causing the swing-state Democrats to change their stripes. Meanwhile, Big Green argues that their politically correct, economically incorrect energies are really cheaper and better. They cite studies, such as [Lazard’s (flawed) LCOE analysis](https://www.google.com/search?q=Lazard%27s+LCOE+analysis+criticized&sca_esv=34651f0857a3a838&biw=1674&bih=562&sxsrf=APpeQnssvZw9_6qkaI3_0E91zerqm5DsFg%3A1792511325780&ei=XY3XatuPL466qtsPlsiauAg&uact=5&oq=Lazard%27s+LCOE+analysis+criticized&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiIUxhemFyZCdzIExDT0UgYW5hbHlzaXMgY3JpdGljaXplZDIFECEYoAFIvipQmghY-yVwAXgBkAEAmAFZoAHfBqoBAjExuAEDyAEA-AEBmAIMoAL6CMICChAAGEcY1gQYsAPCAg4QABjkAhjWBBiwA9gBAcICFxAuGNwGGLgGGNoGGNgCGMgDGLAD2AEBwgIGEAAYFhgewgILEAAYgAQYigUYhgPCAgUQABjvBcICCBAAGIkFGKIEmAMAiAYBkAYPugYGCAEQARgJkgcDNC44oAfDJbIHAzMuOLgH6AjCBwYyLTEwLjLIB1CACAE&sclient=gws-wiz-serp). And Stanford University engineer Mark Jacobson’s [fanciful analysis](https://www.technologyreview.com/2017/06/19/151141/in-sharp-rebuttal-scientists-squash-hopes-for-100-percent-renewables/) that the U.S. could affordability go to 100 percent renewables (without nuclear too). Remember: Noncompetitive energies need studies; competitive energies need economic freedom. **Appendix** Previous posts at MasterResource on this issue have been: > [Climate Retreat Documented in the _New York Times_](https://www.masterresource.org/new-york-times/climate-retreat-nyt-has-noticed/)( > July 15, 2026) > [‘Climate Hushing’: Pragmatism Demoting Exaggeration (McKibben fools himself)](https://www.masterresource.org/collapse-alarmismpolitics/climate-hushing-pragmatism/) > May 19, 2026 > [Disaster? NYT Op-Ed on Demoting the Climate Pitch](https://www.masterresource.org/new-york-times/disaster-or-not-nyt-oped-demote-climate-pitch/)( > May 14, 2026) > [Climate Messaging: The Alarmists are Alarmed](https://www.masterresource.org/romm-joseph-climate-progress/alarmed-alarmists-climate/)( > July 29, 2025) ## 16,000 Years of Balkan Summers Revealed in Mountain Lake Sediments - Link: https://climatescience.press/?p=481839 - Published: 2026-10-24T06:01:16-07:00 - Author: uwe.roland.gross ![A picturesque landscape featuring a lake surrounded by mountains and traditional wooden houses, with a geological timeline displayed, showing different periods from the Last Glacial to the Holocene, alongside illustrations of chironomid head capsules and pollen grains.](https://i0.wp.com/climatescience.press/wp-content/uploads/2026/ 10/0-16000-Years-of-Balkan-Summers-Revealed-in-Mountain-Lake-Sediments.jpg?resize =840%2C564&ssl=1) AI generated by Grok **Researchers at Eötvös Loránd University (ELTE) in Hungary reconstructed ~16,000 years of summer (mean July) temperature changes in the Western Balkans using sediments from Lake Prokoško in Bosnia and Herzegovina.** The work was led by Enikő Magyari (Department of Environmental and Landscape Geography, Institute of Geography and Earth Sciences, and head of the DOMINO- CLIMATE project). **Two complementary 2026 studies on the same sediment sequence cover the full period:** one on the **Late Glacial to Early Holocene **(~16,000- 10,000 years ago) by Magyari, doctoral researcher Eszter Tombor, and colleagues (_Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology_), and one on the Holocene by Magyari’s group with contributions including Aneta Formáčková (_Quaternary Science Reviews_). Together they provide a continuous record from the end of the last glacial period to the present. ### **Site and methods** **Lake Prokoško** is a small alpine lake (4.8 hectares) at 1,670 m elevation in the **Vranica Mountains (Dinaric Alps)**. Sediments preserve remains of the surrounding landscape and lake ecosystem. **The primary temperature proxy was fossil chironomids (non- biting midges): **their larvae live on lake beds, different species prefer different temperatures, oxygen and nutrient conditions, and their durable chitinous head capsules accumulate in sediments. Species assemblages from the core were compared with modern European lake data to estimate past mean July air temperatures. Supporting analyses of pollen, sediment particles, organic matter, and geochemistry tracked vegetation, erosion, and lake conditions. ### **Key temperature findings** * **Late Glacial: **Around 14,600 years ago, mean July temperatures were below 8°C. They then rose rapidly by ~2.6°C to about 10.2°C, with increased lake productivity, vegetation expansion, and more stable catchment conditions. * **Younger Dryas (starting ~12,900 years ago):** Temperatures dropped ~2.3°C to around 7.9°C. Cold-water chironomids increased and erosion intensified. This cooling was intermediate in strength: stronger than in the Eastern and Southern Carpathians (often <1°C) but weaker than in many Alpine lakes (3–4°C), showing a west- to -east gradient linked to North Atlantic oceanic and atmospheric changes. * **Early Holocene:** Rapid warming of ~2.9°C between ~11,800 and 11,400 years ago; by ~10,500 years ago temperatures reached ~12.6°C. The ice- free season lengthened and closed- canopy forests reduced erosion. * **Mid- to- Late Holocene:** Temperatures fluctuated. Around 6,800 years ago they may have reached ~14°C (some summers warmer than today’s). A cooling trend began ~6,000- 5,500 years ago (part of the **Neoglacial transition**), with values falling toward ~11.8°C by ~5,670 years ago. Further cooling around 3,000 years ago dropped temperatures from ~14.7°C to ~12°C; the **Roman Warm Period** (~2,000 years ago) brought a rise to ~13.3°C. **Mid- Holocene warmth **was driven mainly by orbital changes that increased Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (a seasonal effect). Modern warming is global, year- round, faster, and primarily linked to greenhouse- gas emissions. ### **Broader significance** The site lies in a climatic transition zone among Western, Central, and Eastern Europe. The same large- scale events (e.g., Younger Dryas) had spatially varying impacts, relevant for understanding regional differences including the Carpathian Basin. Alpine lakes are sensitive indicators: even modest temperature shifts affect ice cover, stratification, oxygen, and biology.[⁠](https://phys.org/news/2026-10-reconstructing-years-summer-temperature-western.html) The findings come from the two peer- reviewed papers noted above and were summarized in ELTE and phys.org releases around mid- to- late October 2026. ![Aerial view of a mountainous landscape featuring a serene lake surrounded by a small village and lush greenery, with an inset image of water lilies on the lake surface.](https://i0.wp.com/climatescience.press/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/image- 172.png?resize=840%2C630&ssl=1) Panoramic view of Lake Prokoško and the Vranica Mountains at an elevation of 1,670 meters, Bosnia and Herzegovina. The lake is now overgrown with aquatic vegetation. Credit: Gusztáv Jakab **Chironomid- based Holocene summer temperature variability in Lake Prokoško, Vranica Mountains, Bosnia and Hercegovina (western- Balkan region)** **This is the Holocene- focused companion paper to the Late Glacial and Early Holocene study from the same Lake Prokoško sediment sequence.** It forms one half of the continuous ~16,000- year summer (mean July) temperature reconstruction for the Western Balkans led by Enikő Magyari’s group at Eötvös Loránd University (ELTE). The other paper (Tombor et al.) covers the Late Glacial to Early Holocene in _Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology_. ### **Key points from available summaries of this paper** * **Site:** Small alpine lake (Lake Prokoško, ~4.8 ha, 1,670 m elevation) in the Vranica Mountains, Dinaric Alps, Bosnia and Herzegovina. * **Method:** Chironomid (non-biting midge) head-capsule assemblages from the sediment core, calibrated against modern European lake data to reconstruct mean July air temperatures. Supported by pollen, sedimentology, organic matter, and geochemistry. * **Main Holocene results (as reported in ELTE and phys.org coverage of both papers):** - **Rapid post- Younger Dryas warming:** ~2.9 °C rise between ~11,800- 11,400 years ago; ~12.6 °C by ~10,500 years ago. - **Mid- Holocene peak:** reconstructed mean July temperatures may have reached ~14 °C around 6,800 years ago (some summers warmer than present). - **Subsequent cooling as part of the Neoglacial transition** (~6,000- 5,500 years ago onward), with values falling toward ~11.8 °C by ~5,670 years ago. - **Further cooling around 3,000 years ago** (from ~14.7 °C to ~12 °C), followed by a rise during the Roman Warm Period (~2,000 years ago) to ~13.3 °C. - **Human impact signals appear by ~6,000 years ago** (pollen evidence of grazing and open habitats) and intensify later (nutrient enrichment, shifts in chironomid communities from ~700- 500 years ago onward, linked to alpine grazing and, more recently, tourism/eutrophication). The paper emphasizes that mid- Holocene warmth was primarily orbital (higher Northern Hemisphere summer insolation), whereas modern warming is global, year- round, and anthropogenic. The site sits in a climatic transition zone, with the magnitude of events (e.g., Younger Dryas cooling of ~2.3 °C) intermediate between the Alps and the Eastern Carpathians. **Note on access:** The full text on ScienceDirect is behind a paywall (or institutional access). Public summaries are available via the ELTE announcement and the phys.org article based on it (published ~21 October 2026). No open- access full-text version was located in searches at the time of checking. **Journal:** [Quaternary Science Reviews](https://phys.org/journals/quaternary-science-reviews/),( 2026) DOI: [10.1016/j.quascirev.2026.110255](https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2026.110255) **Provided: **[Eötvös Loránd University](https://phys.org/partners/e--tv--s-lor--nd-university/) **Authors:** Aneta Formáčková, Ladislav Hamerlík, Ingo Feeser, Walter Dörfler, Johannes Müller, János L. Korponai, Gusztáv Jakab, Jasmina Kamberović, Enikő Magyari ## **Abstract** Despite increasing regional studies, quantitative reconstructions of Holocene climate remain limited in the western Balkans. This study provides the first chironomid- based summer air temperature reconstruction from Bosnia and Herzegovina, based on a sediment core from Lake Prokoško (1670 m a.s.l., Vranica Mountains) spanning ∼ 11,700 cal yr BP to the present. In total, 53 chironomid taxa were identified, with assemblage changes reflecting major ecological and climatic shifts. Cold-adapted Late Glacial taxa persisted until ∼11,500 cal yr BP, after which warmer and more stable conditions promoted oligotrophic to mesotrophic assemblages and the rise of _Cladotanytarsus mancus_-type, accompanied by July air temperatures reaching ∼13.2 °C (based on Swiss-Norwegian training set results). Later drop in temperatures ∼8000 cal yr BP to 11.2 °C could be connected to the 8.2 ka climatic oscillation. The Middle Holocene transition (∼6000–5500 cal yr BP) shows cooling to 11.8 °C, reduced taxonomic richness, and enhanced sediment input. The reconstructed July air temperatures from this interval may have been partly influenced by human impact. From ∼5000 cal yr BP, mesotrophic conditions and higher diversity prevailed, with temperatures fluctuating between ∼12.0 and 13.3 °C. Late Holocene oscillations include an increase to 13.4 °C at ∼3500 cal yr BP and a decrease to 12.0 °C at ∼2480 cal yr BP, followed by warming during the Roman Warm Period (∼13.3 °C, ∼2000 cal yr BP). The past millennium shows strong anthropogenic influence, with increased representation of meso-to eutrophic taxa, macrophyte expansion, and reduced oxygenation of the profundal zone. Comparisons with other European mountain lakes indicate broadly coherent Holocene climate trends, providing this record as a key reference for the western Balkans. ![Map of Europe showing temperature data with colored markers indicating different temperature ranges in degrees Celsius.](https://i0.wp.com/climatescience.press/wp- content/uploads/2026/10/image-173.png?resize=840%2C411&ssl=1) (A) Map showing the locations of Central and southeast European chironomid-based mean July air temperature records discussed in the text (B) Bathymetric map of Lake Prokoško (modified after Spahić et al. (2015), and our own measurements). (C) Photograph of Lake Prokoško by G. Jakab). Credit: _Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology_( 2026). DOI: 10.1016/j.palaeo.2026.114115 **Chironomid-based Late Glacial and Early Holocene summer temperature variability in Lake Prokoško (Western-Balkan region)** **It is one of the two 2026 ELTE-led studies that together reconstruct ~16,000 years of mean July temperatures in the Western Balkans. This paper focuses on the rapid changes from approximately 16,000- 10,000 years ago (Late Glacial through the beginning of the Holocene). The companion paper (Formáčková et al. in _Quaternary Science Reviews_) covers the Holocene.** ### **Key results from available summaries of this paper** * **Site & methods:** Same small alpine lake (Lake Prokoško, 1,670 m, Vranica Mountains, Bosnia and Herzegovina). Primary proxy = fossil chironomid (non-biting midge) head capsules, calibrated against modern European lake assemblages to estimate past mean July air temperatures. Supported by pollen, sediment particles, organic matter, and geochemistry. * **Temperature history:** - **Oldest layers (~14,600 years ago):** mean July temperatures below 8 °C. - **Rapid warming of ~2.6 °C shortly afterward, reaching ~10.2 °C.** Lake productivity increased, vegetation expanded, and catchment conditions stabilized. - **Younger Dryas (onset ~12,900 years ago):** abrupt cooling of ~2.3 °C, down to ~7.9 °C. Cold-water chironomid species increased and clastic (erosional) input rose. - **End of Younger Dryas and Early Holocene:** another rapid warming of ~2.9 °C between ~11,800 and 11,400 years ago. By ~10,500 years ago temperatures had reached ~12.6 °C; the **ice- free** season lengthened and closed- canopy forests reduced erosion. * **Spatial pattern:** The ~2.3 °C Younger Dryas summer cooling at this Western Balkan site is intermediate, stronger than in the Eastern and Southern Carpathians( often <1 °C) but weaker than in many Alpine lakes (3- 4 °C). This supports a west- to- east gradient linked to North Atlantic oceanic and atmospheric changes. The paper highlights the sensitivity of alpine lakes to relatively modest temperature shifts and the value of the site as a climatic transition zone between Western, Central, and Eastern Europe. **Access note:** The full text is behind the ScienceDirect paywall (institutional or personal subscription required). Detailed public summaries appear in the ELTE announcement and the phys.org article (21 October 2026) that cover both companion papers. No freely available full-text version was located. **Journal:** [Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology](https://phys.org/journals/palaeogeography-palaeoclimatology-palaeoecology/) DOI: [10.1016/j.palaeo.2026.114115](https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2026.114115),( 2026) Provided: [Eötvös Loránd University](https://phys.org/partners/e--tv--s-lor--nd-university/) **Authors:** Eszter Tombor, Aneta Formáčková, [János L. ](https://www.sciencedirect.com/author/6507695544/janos-laszlo-korponai) Korponai, [Veronika Szilágyi](https://www.sciencedirect.com/author/54396323400/veronika-szilagyi), Ingo Feeser, Walter Dörfler, Christel van den Bogaard, [Johannes Müller](https://www.sciencedirect.com/author/22935166000/johannes-muller), [Enikő K. Magyari ](https://www.sciencedirect.com/author/16638085500/eniko-katalin-magyari) ## **Abstract** The Late Glacial and Early Holocene were marked by abrupt climate oscillations, yet high-resolution quantitative temperature reconstructions remain scarce in the climatically transitional Western Balkans. Here, we present a chironomid-based mean July air temperature (T_(July)) reconstruction from subalpine Lake Prokoško (1670 m a.s.l., Bosnia and Herzegovina), spanning ∼18–9.87 ka BP. Using a Swiss–Norwegian calibration dataset together with geochemical (XRF, LOI) and palynological proxies, we reconstruct the climatic and limnological evolution of the lake ecosystem.Before ∼14.6 ka BP, Lake Prokoško was a cold oligotrophic glacial environment with T_(July) below 8.0 °C, dominated by cold-stenotherm taxa such as _Pseudodiamesa_. The Bølling– Allerød interstadial experienced rapid warming to ∼10.2 °C (+2.6 °C), accompanied by enhanced aquatic productivity and catchment stabilization. During the Younger Dryas (∼13.07–11.61 ka BP) July mean temperatures declined by ∼2.3 °C (to ∼7.9 ° C), coinciding with increased soil erosion, catchment instability, and the return of cold-water fauna. The onset of the Early Holocene brought a further warming of 2.9 °C (>12.0 °C), leading to stable summer stratification, hypolimnetic anoxia, and a shift to a highly productive mesotrophic–eutrophic lake state. Regionally, the ∼2.3 °C Younger Dryas cooling places Lake Prokoško between the stronger Alpine( >3.0–4.0 °C) and weaker Eastern Carpathian (<1.0 °C) responses. Our results support a west–east decreasing summer cooling gradient across Europe during the Younger Dryas, linked to diminishing North Atlantic influence inland. ![Map showing chironomid-inferred July air temperature changes during the Younger Dryas/Holocene transition, with Lake Prokosko marked. Includes temperature data points, age graph, and related climatic information.](https://i0.wp.com/climatescience. press/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/image-175.png?resize=368%2C200&ssl=1) [1-s2.0-S003101822600578X-ga1.jpg (368×200)](https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S003101822600578X-ga1.jpg) ## Hidden Antarctic Lake Drains 78 Million Cubic Meters, Causing Ice Surface to Sink 6 Meters - Link: https://climatescience.press/?p=481785 - Published: 2026-10-23T14:02:56-07:00 - Author: uwe.roland.gross ![A circular depression in the icy surface of Antarctica, indicating a drained lake that caused the ice to sink by 6 meters.](https://i0.wp.com/climatescience.press/ wp-content/uploads/2026/10/0-Hidden-Antarctic-Lake-Drains-78-Million-Cubic-Meters- Causing-Ice-Surface-to-Sink-6-Meters.jpg?resize=840%2C564&ssl=1) **_AI generated by Grok_** **Researchers using satellite data have documented the drainage of the Kronshtadskiy( also spelled Kroushtadskiy) subglacial lake in East Antarctica near the Amery Ice Shelf, which caused a broad depression in the overlying ice surface that deepened by more than 6 meters (about 20- 21 feet) at its center.** The lake, previously hidden under the ice, lost an estimated **78 million cubic meters (roughly 20.6 billion gallons) **of water between 2016 and 2021. This volume is equivalent to tens of thousands of Olympic- sized swimming pools. The affected surface area was roughly circular and covered about 61 square kilometers (24 square miles). Average surface lowering across the area was about 1.3 meters (4.3 feet). Key details from the study (published in _Scientific Reports_ by Jihyun Moon and Hoonyol Lee of Kangwon National University, South Korea): * **Most drainage happened early:** the center sank about 3.8 meters (12.5 feet) in **2016- 2017**, then slowed markedly (to under 0.3 meters per year by 2019– 2021), with little evidence of major refilling. This pattern points to prolonged or repeated partial drainage through subglacial channels rather than one sudden catastrophic outburst.[⁠](https://phys.org/news/2026-10-antarctic-ice-reveals-hidden-lake.html) * **Analysis relied primarily on Sentinel-1 SAR** (synthetic aperture radar) ** interferometry**, which detects millimeter- scale surface changes from space, supported by **CryoSat- 2** and **ICESat- 2 **altimetry data. * **Downstream surface features** (one rising, another sinking) suggest the water may have moved into a connected network of other subglacial reservoirs rather than simply vanishing.[⁠](https://phys.org/news/2026-10-antarctic-ice-reveals-hidden-lake.html) **Subglacial lakes form from meltwater generated by geothermal heat and friction at the ice- bedrock interface.** Active ones fill and drain over months to years, influencing ice- sheet flow by lubricating the base and potentially affecting how ice reaches the ocean. This event adds to growing satellite- based inventories of such lakes (hundreds are now known across Antarctica) and helps map hidden hydrologic networks. The findings highlight how remote sensing can reveal dynamic processes under kilometers of ice that would otherwise be inaccessible. ![Map of the Amery Ice Shelf and surrounding basins, showing ice velocity with a color gradient from blue (0 m/year) to red (1300 m/year), along with labeled features such as Fisher Basin, Mellor Basin, and Kroshatdatskiy subglacial lake.](https:// i0.wp.com/climatescience.press/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/image-169.png?resize=840% 2C801&ssl=1) The area of the Sentinel-1 SAR IW images shown in descending orbit (yellow box) and the processed image area in this study (red box) over the ice velocity map. Kronshtadskiy subglacial lake, the target of this study, is inside the red box. Credit: _Scientific Reports_ (2026). DOI: 10.1038/s41598-026-75829-x **Double- Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (DDInSAR)** is an advanced remote- sensing technique that measures subtle, time- varying vertical surface displacements, especially useful for detecting activity of subglacial lakes under Antarctic ice sheets. ### **How it builds on standard InSAR methods** | Technique | What it does | Main signal isolated | | **InSAR** | Compares the radar phase of two SAR images of the same area acquired at different times (or slightly different positions) | Topography, surface motion, atmosphere and noise | | **DInSAR (Differential **InSAR) | Removes the topographic contribution (using a DEM or a second interferometric pair) | Surface deformation (line- of- sight), which still mixes horizontal ice flow and vertical changes | | **DDInSAR **(Double-Differential InSAR) | Differentiates _two_ DInSAR interferograms from different time periods | Temporally _varying_ vertical displacement (the steady horizontal ice- flow component largely cancels out) | ### **Why DDInSAR is needed on ice sheets** On fast- flowing Antarctic glaciers, the dominant signal in a normal DInSAR interferogram is the steady horizontal ice motion. Subglacial lake filling or drainage produces a much smaller vertical (up and down) signal that is mixed in with the flow. If ice- flow velocity is approximately constant between the two periods, subtracting one DInSAR interferogram from another cancels the common flow contribution. What remains are closed contour “fringes” that map the change in vertical displacement rate, exactly the signature of a lake rising or falling. ### **Practical application (as used for Kronshtadskiy lake)** * Researchers form many short- baseline (e.g., 24-day) Sentinel- 1 DInSAR pairs. * They then create DDInSAR interferograms by differencing pairs from different epochs. * The resulting maps reveal a roughly circular zone of progressive surface sinking( up to ~6.4 m at the center over several years), from which water- volume loss can be estimated. * Complementary ascending and descending orbits or altimetry (CryoSat- 2, ICESat- 2) can further separate residual horizontal- flow variations if needed. ### **Advantages and limitations** * **Strengths: **High spatial resolution, sensitivity to millimeter- to- centimeter vertical changes, works through cloud and polar night, and can detect relatively small or short- lived hydrological events that altimetry alone might miss. * **Assumptions:** Ice- flow velocity must be reasonably steady; otherwise, residual flow- variation signals must be modeled and removed. * **Coherence:** Requires sufficient radar coherence (surface stability) between acquisitions; long temporal baselines or heavily crevassed ice can degrade results. **In short, DDInSAR is a clever _“double differencing”_ of radar phase measurements that isolates the vertical _“breathing”_ of the ice surface caused by hidden subglacial water movement.** ![A colorful satellite image showing polar topography, with labeled tracks from ICESat and ICESat-2. Multiple geographic markers are present, including points labeled A, B, and C, along with areas outlined in white and red.](https://i0.wp.com/climatescience. press/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/image-170.png?resize=840%2C806&ssl=1) Ground tracks of satellite altimeters. The white polygon is the boundary of the subglacial lakes defined by DDInSAR while the black polygon is the boundary of Kronshtadskiy subglacial lake. Credit: _Scientific Reports_ (2026). DOI: 10.1038/s41598-026-75829- x **Drainage of Kronshtadskiy subglacial lake in Antarctica observed by double-differential SAR interferometry** ### **Abstract summary** Hundreds of subglacial lakes in Antarctica have been identified via radio- echo sounding and satellite altimetry but detecting smaller or shorter- lived hydrological events has been difficult because of limited spatial and temporal resolution. This study applied **Double- Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (DDInSAR)** to measure surface- elevation changes linked to the Kronshtadskiy subglacial lake near the Amery Ice Shelf in East Antarctica. Researchers generated 77 DDInSAR interferograms from Sentinel- 1 SAR images (24- day temporal baseline) spanning 2016- 2021. They documented a rapid drainage event at a roughly circular subglacial lake covering** 61 km²**. Estimated water- volume loss was **78.0 million cubic meters (Mm³)**. * Maximum subsidence at the lake center: **6.37 m.** * Most of the drop occurred in 2016– 2017 (rate ≈ 2.54 m/yr). * Rates then declined sharply: 0.88 m/yr in 2018 and < 0.30 m/yr during 2019–2021. Independent satellite altimetry from CryoSat-2 and ICESat-2 confirmed the overall subsidence trend. The work shows that DDInSAR is effective for monitoring subglacial hydrology even in fast- flowing polar ice environments. ### Additional details from the page * **Funding:** National Research Foundation of Korea and related Korean technology programs. * **Corresponding author:** Hoonyol Lee (hoonyol@kangwon.ac.kr). * Open-access under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 license. * Received 7 April 2026; accepted 9 October 2026. This is the primary peer- reviewed source behind the recent news reports about the**“ sinking Antarctic ice” **and the lake’s water loss. The DDInSAR method provided higher- resolution spatial mapping of the surface depression than altimetry alone, allowing the volume estimate and the temporal evolution of the drainage to be reconstructed in detail. **Journal:** [Scientific Reports](https://phys.org/journals/scientific-reports/),( 2026), [Open access](https://www.springernature.com/gp/open-science/about/the-fundamentals-of-open-access-and-open-research) **DOI:** [10.1038/s41598-026-75829-x](https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-75829-x) **Published:** 12 October 2026 (early access, accepted version) **Authors:**[ ](https://www.springernature.com/gp/open-science/about/the-fundamentals-of-open-access-and-open-research) [Jihyun Moon](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-026-75829-x#auth-Jihyun-Moon-Aff1-Aff2)& [Hoonyol Lee](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-026-75829-x#auth-Hoonyol-Lee-Aff1) ![Map of Antarctica showing subglacial lakes. Red triangles indicate newly discovered active subglacial lakes, pink triangles represent existing archive active subglacial lakes, and black circles denote existing archive stable subglacial lakes. Key locations and ice shelves are labeled.](https://i0.wp.com/climatescience.press/wp-content/ uploads/2026/10/image-171.png?resize=840%2C674&ssl=1) Updated Antarctic subglacial lake inventory. Credit: _Nature Communications_ (2025). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-63773-9. [https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-63773-9](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-63773-9) ## Global Warming Halted the Next Ice Age Just as It Began - Link: https://climatescience.press/?p=481736 - Published: 2026-10-23T12:11:43-07:00 - Author: uwe.roland.gross ![Infographic titled 'Global Warming Halted the Next Ice Age Just as It Began' explaining the paradox of climate change. It summarizes global warming, the natural cooling trend leading to the next ice age, and the human intervention that prevented it. Includes data on CO2 levels and global temperatures, emphasizing the precarious balance in climate management.](https://i0.wp.com/climatescience.press/wp-content/ uploads/2026/10/0-Global-Warming-Halted-the-Next-Ice-Age-Just-as-It-Began.jpg?resize =840%2C564&ssl=1) **_AI generated by Grok_** **A new study published in _Science_ (October 22, 2026) by researchers including Nicolás Young and Joerg Schaefer of Columbia’s Lamont- Doherty Earth Observatory( part of the Columbia Climate School) finds that the last remnant of the Laurentide Ice Sheet began expanding about 2,000 years ago, potentially marking the start of the next glacial period, but reversed and began retreating around 1960 due to rising temperatures linked to human- caused warming.** The Barnes Ice Cap on Baffin Island (Nunavut, Canada), roughly the size of Delaware and the final surviving piece of the vast Laurentide Ice Sheet that once covered much of Canada and parts of the northern United States, reached a minimum size after about 3,600 years ago. It then began re- expanding around 2,000 years ago as the climate cooled enough for net ice accumulation. The researchers interpret this renewed growth as the onset of the **next glaciation** (what is commonly called an **“ice age”**), even though a full continental- scale ice sheet would have taken many thousands of years (on the order of ~30,000 years) to rebuild. ### Key methods and evidence * The ice is frozen to the bedrock (not sliding), which preserved vegetation (mosses, lichen, etc.) that was overrun and killed as the ice advanced. Carbon-14 dating of these plants, combined with data from other nearby ice caps and exposure dating( e.g., beryllium-10 on rocks), allowed reconstruction of the ice-margin timeline. * Historic aerial photos and observations show the ice reached a recent maximum around 1960 and has since retreated (margins averaging ~4 meters per year in recent decades), as summer melt began exceeding winter accumulation.[⁠](https://www.wired.com/story/ice-age-beginning-then-humans-started-burning-fossil-fuels/) This challenges model- based views that the **next glacial inception** was still thousands or tens of thousands of years away under **natural (Milankovitch orbital) conditions**. The team argues the first renewed ice- sheet growth should count as the beginning of a glacial period. The findings also provide retrospective context for 1970s scientific concerns about a coming ice age: the process had in fact begun, though it would have been gradual and not immediately noticeable. The paper (“_Late Holocene reexpansion of the Laurentide Ice Sheet_”) attributes the **post- 1960 reversal **primarily to anthropogenic **greenhouse- gas forcing** overwhelming the natural cooling trend from declining summer insolation. Models suggest the **Barnes Ice Cap** will disappear entirely within the next few centuries, removing a key nucleation point that historically helped ice sheets expand during cooling phases. Future glacial cycles, if they occur under elevated greenhouse- gas levels, may therefore unfold differently. **In short, the study presents observational evidence that human- driven warming interrupted an emerging glacial period that had already begun in the Arctic remnant of the last major North American ice sheet.** ![Map showing the Baffin Bay area with labeled features including the Barnes Ice Cap, locations of ice cores, and significant geological data points. Information is illustrated with various symbols and numerical data indicating estimated ages.]( https://i0.wp.com/climatescience.press/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/image-168.png? resize=840%2C628&ssl=1) Areal extent of the North American Ice Sheet Complex at the Last Glacial Maximum ~22 ka calibrated BP ([_42_](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aed3379#core-collateral-R42)) [Late Holocene reexpansion of the Laurentide Ice Sheet | Science](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aed3379) ### **Editor’s summary** Has anthropogenic warming prevented the next glacial cycle? Young _et al._ examined the Barnes Ice Cap (Baffin Island, Canada), the last remaining piece of the **Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS)**, once the largest Pleistocene ice sheet covering much of North America. After shrinking through much of the early- and mid- Holocene, the LIS began growing again around 2000 years ago but started shrinking once more around 1960. The authors attribute this reversal to anthropogenic greenhouse forcing and present it as evidence that humans caused the termination of the next glaciation. ### **Abstract (key points)** * During **interglacials**, the Laurentide **Ice Sheet retreats** to _Arctic Canada_ and reaches a minimum configuration. Its subsequent reexpansion marks the start of the next glaciation. * The** Barnes Ice Cap** (the last remnant of the most recent LIS) reached its minimum interglacial size after **~3.6 thousand years ago**. * It then reexpanded beginning** ~2000 years ago**, which the authors interpret as the onset of the next glaciation. * This renewed LIS reached maximum dimensions around 1960 CE. * After that, **anthropogenic summer warming** produced a negative mass balance, ice-margin recession, and the termination of the next glaciation. * This occurred **despite ongoing natural decline** in summer insolation, illustrating the dominant influence of **anomalous greenhouse- gas forcing**. ### **Main findings and methods** The Barnes Ice Cap sits on relatively low- elevation bedrock (~500 m) and is largely cold- based (frozen to its bed), so it preserves rather than erodes underlying vegetation. **Researchers used:** * In situ **¹⁰Be surface- exposure dating** of bedrock and erratics to show the ice margin retreated rapidly across the modern forefield and inside the present- day margin at** 3.56 ± 0.24 ka BP**. * **Radiocarbon dating of entombed vegetation** (mosses and woody plants) that was overrun and killed as the ice advanced, then re- exposed by recent retreat. These **“kill dates”** document the timing and progressive advance of the ice margin toward its ~1960 historical maximum (a clear trimline). Many ages cluster around the coldest part of the Little Ice Age (~1800 ± 200 CE). The regional snowline first intersected the Baffin plateau landscape around the start of the Common Era, allowing net ice accumulation and the beginning of re- expansion. Growth continued (with pulses during cooler intervals) until ~1960, after which summer warming reversed the mass balance. Between ~1960 and 2022 the margin retreated 200- 800 m. ### Broader implications The authors argue that the first renewed growth of the LIS remnant should be counted as the start of the next glacial cycle, even though a full continental-scale ice sheet would have taken many millennia to develop. The modern reversal, driven by human- caused greenhouse -gas increases, interrupted that process. The Barnes Ice Cap is projected to disappear within the coming centuries, removing a historically important nucleation site for future ice- sheet growth. A companion Perspective in the same issue of _Science_ (“Has the next ice age already come and gone?” by Shaun A. Marcott) discusses the results in the context of **orbital( Milankovitch) cycles** and anthropogenic disruption of the glacial- interglacial metronome.[⁠](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aem3295) The paper is currently listed as free access on the Science website. **Journal:** [Science](https://phys.org/journals/science/), Vol. 394, Issue 6822, pp. 455–459 **DOI:** [10.1126/science.aed3379](https://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.aed3379), [www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aed3379](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aed3379) **Provided:** [Columbia Climate School](https://phys.org/partners/columbia-climate-school/) **Authors:** Nicolás E. Young, Joerg M. Schaefer, and colleagues. ## Disappearing Hurricanes Leave Disappointed Scientists Without Fuel for Climate Alarm - Link: https://climatescience.press/?p=481712 - Published: 2026-10-23T10:25:19-07:00 - Author: uwe.roland.gross ![Three scientists standing on a beach, examining data displays regarding hurricane tracking and satellite information.](https://i0.wp.com/climatescience.press/wp-content/ uploads/2026/10/0-Disappearing-Hurricanes-Leave-Disappointed-Scientists-Without- Fuel-for-Climate-Alarm.jpg?resize=840%2C560&ssl=1) **_AI generated by Meta_** From [The Daily Sceptic](https://dailysceptic.org/2026/10/21/disappearing-hurricanes-leave-disappointed-scientists-without-fuel-for-climate-alarm/) By [**Chris Morrison**](https://dailysceptic.org/author/chris-morrison/) Hurricanes in the North Atlantic have largely disappeared this year, leaving bitterly disappointed scientists without fuel for their climate alarm and having to admit the role of natural variation, says Chris Morrison. ![A serene view of a calm ocean at sunset with gentle waves and a gradient sky transitioning from orange to purple.](https://i0.wp.com/climatescience.press/wp-content/uploads/ 2026/10/image-167.png?resize=840%2C484&ssl=1) Emergency explanations have had to be rushed to the climate catastrophising front following the shocking news that hurricanes in the North Atlantic have largely disappeared this year. Until recently the area was heading for a double bagel – zero hurricanes with zero major hurricanes, although a late storm has upset a score line never before seen in the historical record. As with all ‘extreme’ outlier weather events, humans must be responsible, at least that has been the mainstream reaction for around 30 years( we have the computer models to prove it). But wait, not on this occasion. Simon King from the BBC states that a natural occurring El Niño is the “[biggest reason](https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/cwgkvyyg8115o?utm_source=chatgpt.com)”. Wot, no humans altering the climate? Surely a first for the BBC. In fact, lead weather presenter King is on the right track in that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a transporter of heat from the Pacific Ocean around the world, can reduce wind shear and suppress storm activity. But activity is complex in the chaotic, non-linear, largely unmeasurable atmosphere. Such a simple explanation didn’t work well in 2023 when another strong El Niño occurred at a time when there was a long-term-average- busting hurricane season with seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. Then the narrative-driven media was jammed packed with possible anthropogenic causes. Long experience of being fed climate claptrap means we must be intrigued when ‘natural’ reasons are suddenly being used to explain the inevitable weather outliers that run the danger of casting doubt on the pseudoscience backing the Net Zero fantasy. While such natural explanations are welcome, indeed almost always highly relevant, they are curiously missing from most useful idiot mainstream climate messaging. In 2018, Oliver Milman of the _Guardian_ gave us the standard climate slop on extreme storms when he reported: “Hurricane rainfall could increase by a third and wind speeds boosted by up to 25 knots if [global warming continues](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/14/climate-change-hurricanes-study-global-warming).” Almost invariably, natural causes for all weather or weather-related events are either missing or entirely lost in proselytising action. For coral showing five years of record growth on the Great Barrier Reef, the largest coral ecosystem in the world – almost no interest in the mainstream media. Global burned areas in the annual fire season to February 2026 were [down 18%](https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2026-587/) on the recent 20-year average – who cares when there is a much better story about Bordeaux claret having a slightly smoky taste this year due to a number of local fires indicative of Fireball Earth. Don’t believe that such a story could appear in the biased press – I give you Esme Stallard’s 2023 [BBC classic](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67078674):‘ Climate change could make beer taste worse.’ A stable Greenland ice sheets this year, maybe a small increase – get in the bin. Surely this is a good news story for all except perhaps makers of scuba diving equipment selling kit for all those grandchildren who are going to be underwater later in the century. A natural explanation, in case it never gets reported, is that the northern 2026 summer jet stream kept high pressure over the UK and Europe, and all the low pressure-induced rain seems to have fallen as snow during a colder Greenland season. In addition, cyclical factors seem to be at play since ice loss in Greenland has been falling for a number of years anyway. Much of this is caused by, or is called, weather. Explaining that bad or extreme weather is as much a natural event as all other types does not fit the predetermined narrative that drives the population panic required for the hard Left Net Zero project. Just ‘look out of the window’ and complex atmospheric science can be easily understood by blaming all the crap weather on humans using hydrocarbons. Works every time when there are loads of convenient hurricanes – less well when the wind is stilled and the ocean is as calm as a mill pond. In fact, the constant suggestion that human-caused climate change will lead to more severe tropical hurricanes is not borne out by scientific data. Leaving aside the fact that hurricanes in number and strength have shown little noticeable change for at least a century, the idea that warmer ocean waters caused by higher carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are stoking up the storms is highly contentious. In 2023, the tropical Atlantic featured record surface temperatures but a powerful El Niño failed to make much impression on the high number of storms. Ocean temperatures this year were a little cooler but still remained at the third highest level recorded. Did a marginal drop in temperature affect the dramatic turnaround in hurricane numbers? Maybe, maybe not, but it might be an idea to stay off blaming it on humans until more definite answers are found. In fact, recent scientific evidence suggests that the link between ENSO and tropical storms has [changed over recent decades](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2025GL116968). Last year, a group of US-based Earth scientists found that. in the Atlantic, the link was weak in the 1960s-1970s, strong from the 1980s to early 2000s and a little weaker since then. Other factors determining hurricanes formations were noted to be at play, including higher levels of mid-troposphere humidity and differing phases of important ocean currents. _Chris Morrison is the_ Daily Sceptic_’s Environment Editor. Follow [him on X](https://x.com/CMorrisonEsq). His new best-selling book is_ [IMPLAUSIBLE: How scientists, activist politicians and journalists invented a climate crisis, weaponised junk computer model findings and claimed a fake consensus to promote the collectivist Net Zero fantasy](https://www.amazon.co.uk/IMPLAUSIBLE-Chris-Morrison/dp/1918396353)_– out now and currently No. 1 in Amazon paperbacks in Environment and Amazon downloads in Environmental Issues. Only £3.99 for the [download](https://www.amazon.co.uk/IMPLAUSIBLE-Chris-Morrison-ebook/dp/B0HFPZZN5X/) and £8.99 for the [paperback](https://www.amazon.co.uk/IMPLAUSIBLE-Chris-Morrison/dp/1918396353)._ ## Northern Ice Sheets Cooled the Southern Ocean and Helped Lock Away CO₂ During Ice Ages - Link: https://climatescience.press/?p=481660 - Published: 2026-10-23T08:36:37-07:00 - Author: uwe.roland.gross ![Diagram illustrating the Ice Age Earth system featuring expanded ice sheets, intensified ocean circulation, and CO2 drawdown processes. Key elements include cold deep currents, deep ocean conveyor pathways, and CO2 absorption and sequestration in the Southern Ocean.](https://i0.wp.com/climatescience.press/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/0-Northern- Ice-Sheets-Cooled-the-Southern-Ocean-and-Helped-Lock-Away-CO%E2%82%82-During-Ice- Ages.jpg?resize=840%2C564&ssl=1) **_AI generated by Grok_** **New research from the University of St Andrews, published in the _Journal of Climate_( 22 October 2026), proposes a mechanism linking Northern Hemisphere ice sheets to Southern Ocean changes that helped drive past ice ages via CO₂ drawdown.** Ice ages are largely driven by more atmospheric CO₂ being stored in the ocean, a process mainly controlled by changes in the Southern Ocean around Antarctica (involving ocean circulation and sea ice). **Orbital cycles (Milankovitch)** initiate **Northern Hemisphere** **ice- sheet growth**, but the link from those distant northern ice sheets to the Southern Ocean CO₂ sink has been unclear.[⁠](https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1148697) The study proposes that growing northern ice sheets cool nearby **North Atlantic** waters. These cooler waters circulate southward to the Southern Ocean. If the cooling is strong enough, it can trigger circulation and sea- ice changes there that enhance** oceanic CO₂ storage**.[⁠](https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1148697) Researchers tested this with **ocean model simulations** that cooled only the far northern latitudes (mimicking large ice- sheet effects) versus cooling the entire planet. Northern- only cooling produced ~**74% of the CO₂ drawdown** seen in the global- cooling case, supporting the idea that northern cooling can propagate southward and contribute substantially to glacial CO₂ reduction and related ocean features. [⁠](https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1148697) Lead author Dr. Madison Shankle (School of Earth and Environmental Science) noted that the work provides evidence of a plausible mechanism connecting Northern Hemisphere ice sheets with Southern Hemisphere Ocean circulation changes leading to CO₂ drawdown, long a challenge in ice- age theory, and demonstrates it in model simulations.[⁠](https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1148697) The paper is titled “Isolated Northern Hemisphere Cooling in an Idealized Model Promotes Ocean Carbon Storage and Glacial- like Ocean Features” (DOI: 10.1175/JCLI- D-25-0355.1). Understanding these natural carbon- cycle processes are relevant for assessing how the Earth system responds to modern anthropogenic CO₂ increases. ![Aerial view of cracked ice over blue water with a snowy edge.](https://i0.wp.com/ climatescience.press/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/image-166.png?resize=840%2C630&ssl =1) Credit: Евгений Шухман from Pexels **Milankovitch cycles (also called Milanković cycles) are periodic variations in Earth’s orbital geometry and axial orientation that change the amount and distribution of solar radiation (insolation) reaching different parts of the planet over tens to hundreds of thousands of years.** These variations are widely accepted as the primary pacemaker of the Pleistocene ice ages (the** glacial- interglacial cycles** of the last ~2.6 million years). They are named after the Serbian mathematician and astronomer** Milutin Milanković**, who calculated them in the early 20th century. **There are three main cycles:** ### **1. Eccentricity (shape of Earth’s orbit)** * **Period:** Dominant cycles of ~100,000 years and a longer ~400,000-year cycle. * **Earth’s orbit around the Sun varies** from nearly circular (low eccentricity) to more elliptical (higher eccentricity). * **Higher eccentricity** slightly increases the total annual **solar energy Earth** receives and, more importantly, amplifies the contrast between perihelion (closest approach to the Sun) and aphelion (farthest point). * **Effect on climate** is relatively modest on its own, but it modulates the strength of the other two cycles. ### **2. Obliquity (axial tilt)** * **Period:** ~41,000 years. * **Earth’s axial tilt varies** between about 22.1° and 24.5° (currently ~23.4°). * Greater tilt increases the seasonal contrast (**hotter summers and colder winters**), especially at high latitudes. * Reduced tilt **decreases seasonal contrast**, making high- latitude summers cooler, conditions favorable for ice -sheet growth because snow and ice are less likely to melt completely in summer. ### **3. Precession (axial wobble and precession of the equinoxes)** * **Period:** Climatic precession has periods of roughly 19,000 and 23,000 years( the axial precession itself is ~26,000 years). * **Earth “wobbles” on its axis** like a spinning top, and the orientation of the orbit also slowly rotates. Together these change the season in which Earth is closest to the Sun (perihelion). * Currently, **Northern Hemisphere winters** occur near perihelion. When perihelion coincides with Northern Hemisphere summer, summers become warmer (and winters milder) in the north, and vice versa. * This **strongly affects the intensity of seasons** in each hemisphere. ### Combined effect and link to ice ages The three cycles interact, producing complex, quasi- periodic changes in the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of sunlight. The most climatically important quantity is usually Northern Hemisphere high- latitude summer insolation. Cool Northern summers allow snow to persist year- round, enabling ice sheets to grow; warm Northern summers promote melting. These orbital forcings are relatively small in energy terms. Their effects are strongly amplified by feedback in the Earth system, especially: * **Ice- albedo feedback** (more ice reflects more sunlight, further cooling the planet). * **Changes in atmospheric CO₂** (largely controlled by ocean processes, particularly in the Southern Ocean). * **Changes in ocean circulation, vegetation, and dust.** **This is why the previous research you asked about is relevant:** orbital changes initiate Northern Hemisphere ice- sheet growth, and the new work explores one mechanism by which those ice sheets can influence Southern Ocean circulation and CO₂ drawdown, helping drive the planet deeper into a glacial state. In summary, Milankovitch cycles do not act alone, but they set the timing and pacing of the ice ages by modulating the distribution of sunlight over long timescales. > [Milankovitch Cycles, the Last Glacial Period, and Why Earth Is Still in an Ice Age](https://climatescience.press/?p=463941) **Isolated Northern Hemisphere Cooling in an Idealized Model Promotes Ocean Carbon Storage and Glacial-like Ocean Features** Using idealized **ocean- model simulations**, the authors show that cooling _only_ the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes (mimicking the effect of growing Northern Hemisphere ice sheets) is sufficient to drive a large fraction of the ocean carbon storage and Southern Ocean changes characteristic of glacial periods. **In the key experiments:** * They cooled air temperatures only north of 40°N (roughly 13% of the model surface) to glacial- like values while holding the rest of the planet at pre-industrial conditions. * This isolated northern cooling produced **~74%** of the CO₂ drawdown (ocean carbon uptake) that occurred in a parallel simulation in which the entire planet was cooled. * The northern- only cooling led to an additional ~**18.8 billion tonnes of carbon** stored in the ocean. Growing Northern Hemisphere ice sheets cool nearby North Atlantic surface waters. These cooler, denser waters are transported southward via the global overturning circulation. When the cooling signal reaches the Southern Ocean, it alters circulation and promotes expanded sea ice. These Southern Ocean changes enhance the ocean’s ability to store carbon (through a combination of physical and biological carbon pumps), lowering atmospheric CO₂ and helping push the climate deeper into a glacial state. **This provides a plausible “teleconnection”** linking the two classic features of ice ages that are geographically far apart: * **Orbital (Milankovitch) **forcing initiates Northern Hemisphere ice- sheet growth. * The Southern Ocean is the main region responsible for glacial- **interglacial CO₂ drawdown**. **The paper addresses a long- standing gap in ice- age theory:** how northern ice sheets, once formed, can influence the distant Southern Ocean processes that store CO₂. The idealized modeling approach isolates the pure effect of northern cooling and demonstrates that it can generate glacial- like ocean features even without global cooling or other forcings. **The work is consistent with the broader view that orbital cycles set the pacing of ice ages, while feedback involving ice sheets, ocean circulation, sea ice, and the carbon cycle amplify the response.** **Note:** The full text on the AMS journals site is behind a paywall and login. The details above are drawn from the official press release, the paper’s metadata, and secondary reporting. For the complete methods, figures, and discussion (including limitations and sensitivity tests), institutional access or the published PDF is required. **Title: **Isolated Northern Hemisphere Cooling in an Idealized Model Promotes Ocean Carbon Storage and Glacial-like Ocean Features **Journal:** [Journal of Climate](https://phys.org/journals/journal-of-climate/), Volume 39, Issue 22 (2026) **DOI:** [10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0355.1](https://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0355.1) **Provided:** [University of St Andrews](https://phys.org/partners/university-of-st-andrews/) **Authors:** Madison G. Shankle (University of St Andrews), with co- authors including Graeme A. MacGilchrist, Andrea Burke, Alice Marzocchi, Malte F. Jansen, and James W. B. Rae. ## **Abstract** Earth’s past glacial cycles are paced by orbital insolation changes, but internal climate feedbacks modulating atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO_(2)) are necessary to explain the full magnitude of glacial–interglacial climate variability. Identifying such feedbacks and linking them to orbitally paced forcing remains a challenge, impeding a comprehensive understanding of the glacial cycles. Orbital variations, determining the latitudinal distribution and seasonality of insolation, are primarily important for allowing the buildup of large Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Meanwhile, the processes canonically understood to drive CO_(2) drawdown and mediate ocean– atmosphere carbon partitioning are largely hosted in the far-flung Southern Ocean. This study explores the role of remote Northern Hemisphere temperature forcing in influencing Southern Ocean conditions that impact global ocean circulation and carbon content. In a set of idealized ocean–sea ice model simulations, we find that cooling air temperatures to glacial-like levels at the high northern latitudes (emulating the thermal effect of a large Northern Hemisphere ice sheet) drives a substantial CO_(2) drawdown of 32 ppm—or 74% the magnitude of a simulation forced by globally glacial-like temperatures everywhere (43 ppm). Northern cooling is found to cool not only northern-sourced middepth waters but ultimately also global deep waters, resulting in a strong solubility-driven CO_(2) drawdown component. It also drives several characteristic features of glacial periods, including expanded southern sea ice and a colder, saltier, and better stratified deep ocean, which contributes to air–sea CO_(2) disequilibrium. These results demonstrate an interhemispheric connection between Northern Hemisphere conditions paced by orbital variations and Southern Hemisphere processes that modulate deep-ocean carbon content. ## No, New York Times, California’s Climate Has Always Been a Land of Flood, Drought, and Fire - Link: https://climatescience.press/?p=481637 - Published: 2026-10-23T06:22:55-07:00 - Author: uwe.roland.gross ![A dramatic landscape showing a dry, cracked earth in the foreground, with a backdrop of mountains and dark, stormy skies. The image also depicts a wildfire burning in the distance, representing California's climate challenges.](https://i0.wp.com/climatescience. press/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/0-No-New-York-Times-Californias-Climate-Has-Always- Been-a-Land-of-Flood-Drought-and-Fire.jpg?resize=840%2C280&ssl=1) **_AI generated by Meta_** From [ClimateRealism](https://climaterealism.com/2026/10/no-new-york-times-californias-climate-has-always-been-a-land-of-flood-drought-and-fire/) By [Anthony Watts](https://climaterealism.com/author/awatts/) ![Historic illustration depicting K Street in Sacramento during the 1862 flood, showing people in boats navigating through a flooded street lined with buildings.]( https://i0.wp.com/climatescience.press/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/0-sacramento-k- street-1862.jpg?resize=800%2C800&ssl=1) The _New York Times_ article [“Latest Climate Report Warns of Major Upheaval to California Way of Life”](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/19/us/california-climate-change-warning.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com) by Soumya Karlamangla, claims California faces a future of bigger storms, more extreme floods, longer droughts, destructive wildfires, disappearing snowpack, and major disruption to everyday life because of climate change. This is highly misleading if not outright false. The historical and observational record shows that extreme storms, catastrophic floods, prolonged droughts, enormous wildfires, highly variable snowpack, and coastal erosion have always been defining features of California’s natural environment, while many of the Times’ most alarming claims are projections from climate models rather than observed trends. The Times opens with a confident description of California’s future: “Floods will become more widespread and extreme.” It then warns of “more wildfires, bigger storms, longer droughts,” claiming California faces “major upheaval to long-established ways of life.” Those are dramatic predictions. What the Times largely fails to provide is the historical context necessary to understand them. California has always been a land of meteorological extremes. Its Mediterranean climate naturally produces long dry periods punctuated by episodes of tremendous precipitation. Atmospheric rivers carrying Pacific moisture into the state are not a recent creation of climate change. They are [fundamental to California’s hydrology](https://lamont.columbia.edu/news/climate-expert-explains-why-atmospheric-rivers-are-causing-historic-rainfall-california). Perhaps the most obvious omission from the Times article is the Great Flood of 1861- 1862. ![Historical illustration of K Street in Sacramento during the 1862 flood, depicting boats navigating through submerged streets lined with buildings.](https://i0.wp. com/climatescience.press/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/0-CAHistoryRmCAStateLib_csl_011LG. jpg?resize=632%2C620&ssl=1) Image courtesy of US Geological Survey. According to the [United States Geological Survey’s history of California storms and floods](https://www.usgs.gov/centers/california-water-science-center/californias-history-large-storms-floods?utm_source=chatgpt.com), a succession of powerful storms battered California for weeks. Rivers overflowed, levees failed, Sacramento flooded, and enormous portions of the Central Valley disappeared beneath water. The USGS describes the event as remaining “unparalleled in its magnitude.” The storm sequence lasted approximately 45 days. The Sacramento Valley became an inland sea. The flooding was so severe that California lost roughly one-third of its taxable land, and Governor Leland Stanford [reportedly traveled by rowboat to his inauguration](https://factcards.califa.org/gov/stanford.html). This happened in 1861 and 1862, when atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were far below today’s levels. Even that disaster wasn’t unprecedented. The [USGS ARkStorm project reports](https://www.usgs.gov/programs/science-application-for-risk-reduction/science/arkstorm-scenario?qt-science_center_objects=0) geological evidence of **six megastorms larger than the 1861-1862 event during the past 1,800 years**. The agency explicitly states that the Great Flood “is not a freak event,” and that there is no reason similar events will not happen again. Another USGS review [concludes](https://www.usgs.gov/publications/coming-megafloods) that truly massive rainfall-driven California floods appear in the geological record roughly every 200 years. That is rather important context when the New York Times tells readers that future extreme flooding represents a newly emerging climate threat. The same applies to atmospheric rivers. The USGS calls them California’s primary storm mechanism and notes that just a few large atmospheric river events can determine whether a particular year is wet or dry. Researchers are studying sediment records precisely because the approximately 70-year instrumental record of atmospheric rivers is far too short to describe the full range of natural variability. Climate change may alter the intensity of future atmospheric rivers. The USGS and climate-model studies project that possibility, and it should not be dismissed. But a projection of future change is not evidence that California historically lacked catastrophic atmospheric-river storms. It plainly did not. This is also why the Times’ presentation of flooding is so incomplete. [_Climate Realism_ has previously documented](https://climaterealism.com/2024/02/the-new-york-times-conflates-weather-with-climate-change-again/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) that major California flooding long predates modern warming, including the 1862 catastrophe and evidence of still larger prehistoric events. More importantly, the observational precipitation record does not resemble the steadily worsening picture implied by the Times. The [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s California State Climate Summary](https://statesummaries.ncics.org/report_section/ca/1/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) shows enormous year-to-year variation in winter precipitation since the late 19th century. Its record of two-inch extreme precipitation events since 1930 likewise shows substantial variability rather than a simple upward march toward ever more extreme rainfall. The [_Climate at a Glance_ California State Climate Summary](https://climateataglance.com/california-state-climate-summary/?utm_source=chatgpt.com), using NOAA data, similarly reports little overall change in California’s average annual precipitation since 1900 and no sustained increase in extreme precipitation events. California’s drought history is equally inconvenient for the Times’ narrative. NOAA’s [reconstructed Palmer Drought Severity Index](https://statesummaries.ncics.org/img/figure/ca-figure-5.png), seen in the figure below, extends California drought history back approximately 1,000 years using tree-ring and other proxy evidence. It shows repeated prolonged wet and dry periods centuries before industrialization. ![Line graph showing the California Palmer Drought Severity Index over time from 1000 to 2000, with values ranging from -8 to 8. The graph features blue bars indicating wet periods and red bars indicating dry periods, along with a black trend line.]( https://i0.wp.com/climatescience.press/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/image-165.png? resize=840%2C613&ssl=1) California does not alternate between drought and deluge because its climate has suddenly become unstable. Alternating between drought and deluge **is normal for California’s climate**. _Climate Realism_ recently made [precisely this point in response to similar claims about Highway 1](https://climaterealism.com/2026/02/sorry-los-angeles-times-coastal-highway-1-has-always-suffered-from-weather-not-climate/): California’s pattern of drought followed by heavy precipitation is not historically unusual. Massive swings between flooding and drought have occurred for as long as historical and paleoclimate records allow us to examine. Wildfires deserve the same historical perspective. The Times tells readers that several destructive fires have occurred during the past decade and presents them as evidence of the trends Californians are supposedly beginning to experience. But “destructive” is not synonymous with “climatically unprecedented.” Put millions more people, homes, power lines, roads, businesses, and expensive property into fire-prone landscapes, and the economic consequences of fires can increase even without a corresponding increase in the underlying natural hazard. Fire itself is not an aberration in California. It is an integral part of the landscape. A [peer-reviewed study in _Forest Ecology and Management_](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378112707004379) estimated that approximately **1.8 million hectares, about 4.4 million acres, burned annually in prehistoric California before 1800**. The researchers concluded that California’s skies were probably smoky through much of the summer and fall long before modern industrial emissions. California’s own [Fish & Wildlife](https://nrm.dfg.ca.gov/FileHandler.ashx?DocumentID=184826) agencies acknowledge the same history, explaining that the state’s ecosystems evolved with fire and citing estimates of approximately 4.4 million acres burned annually before 1800 through lightning and Native American burning. _Climate at a Glance_ [reports](https://climateataglance.com/california-state-climate-summary/) that modern California wildfire counts and acreage do not show the simple steadily increasing pattern often implied by climate coverage, while emphasizing the importance of vegetation management, ignition sources, and California’s naturally fire-adapted ecosystems. None of this means temperature and moisture have no influence on fire behavior. Of course they do. It means that portraying California wildfire as some novel product of modern climate change requires ignoring thousands of years of California fire ecology. Then there is snowpack. The Times states that Sierra Nevada snowpack is projected to decline 40 percent by midcentury and 60 percent by 2100. Notice the operative word: **projected**. NOAA’s [State Climate Summary](https://statesummaries.ncics.org/report_section/ca/1/) shows observed Donner Summit snow-water-equivalent record shows tremendous natural variability. April 1 snowpack has ranged from almost nothing to more than 80 inches of water equivalent during the observational period. Record-high values occurred in 1952 and 1983, while extremely low values occurred in 1963, 1988, 2014, and 2015. The [Fifth Climate Change Assessment](https://lci.ca.gov/climate/icarp/climate-assessment/) cited by the Time does not measure California’s snowpack in 2050 or 2100. It cannot. Its future hydrology estimates are produced by feeding downscaled global climate model output into additional hydrological models. California’s own technical documentation describes precisely that modeling chain. There is nothing illegitimate about using models to explore possible futures. Policymakers need scenarios for planning. But scenarios are not observations, and newspapers should stop writing about modeled conditions decades from now as though they were measurements already taken. The Times even acknowledges that the state assessment contains **multiple scenarios based on different future greenhouse gas emissions levels**, and quotes a state official saying, “The future is not predetermined.” Yet most of the article is written as though it is. The same problem appears in the claim that as much as three-quarters of California’s beaches “could disappear” by 2100. Latest Climate Report Warns of … Again, “could.” California’s coastline has been eroding, uplifting, subsiding, sliding, and rearranging itself for millennia. Local relative sea level also varies substantially because California is tectonically active. [NOAA tide gauges](https://www.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/) presently show trends ranging from **5.08 mm per year at North Spit to minus 0.76 mm per year at Crescent City**, where the land is rising faster than the ocean. Los Angeles’ long-term gauge shows approximately **1.07 mm per year**, equivalent to about 0.35 feet per century if that linear trend continued unchanged. That is considerably more complicated than “climate change will erase California’s beaches.” Finally, the Times warns that California agriculture could suffer dramatically, including fruit-yield reductions and less irrigated acreage. Latest Climate Report Warns of … Yet actual agricultural data do not show California agriculture collapsing under recent warming. _Climate at a Glance_ [reports](https://climateataglance.com/california-state-climate-summary/), for example, substantial long-term increases in almond production and yields and increased strawberry production. Again, observations and projections are different things. California has warmed. Additional warming can affect snow levels, heat extremes, ecosystems, and water management. Those are legitimate subjects for research and prudent planning. But that is a very different proposition from the New York Times’ portrayal of a state approaching some historically unfamiliar climatic upheaval. California was experiencing catastrophic floods before automobiles existed. It endured megadroughts centuries before coal-fired power plants. Millions of acres burned annually before European settlement. Atmospheric rivers battered the coast long before anyone coined the term “climate change.” Beaches eroded, mountains shed landslides, Sierra snowpack swung wildly from year to year, and Californians learned to build reservoirs, aqueducts, levees, firebreaks, and flood-control systems because this has always been an extraordinarily variable and sometimes violent environment. The lesson of California history is not that nature was once benign and humans somehow broke it. The lesson is that California has **never** been climatically benign. The _New York Times_ could have used California’s Fifth Climate Change Assessment to discuss sensible adaptation to a state naturally prone to flood, drought, fire, erosion, and enormous weather variability. Instead, it largely presents model projections as an approaching climate reckoning while giving readers almost none of the historical context needed to judge those projections. California doesn’t need another climate horror story. It needs reporters willing to look backward at the data before confidently telling readers what catastrophe awaits them ahead. ## Estonian Scientists Uncover Dangerous Resonant Currents Threatening Ships in Varna Canal - Link: https://climatescience.press/?p=481581 - Published: 2026-10-23T05:29:48-07:00 - Author: uwe.roland.gross ![A large container ship navigating through Varna Canal, with turbulent waters and a backdrop of industrial cranes and buildings under a cloudy sky. The image includes wave frequency data and measurements.](https://i0.wp.com/climatescience.press/wp- content/uploads/2026/10/0-Estonian-Scientists-Uncover-Dangerous-Resonant-Currents- Threatening-Ships-in-Varna-Canal.jpg?resize=840%2C564&ssl=1) **_AI generated by Grok_** **Estonian scientists from Tallinn University of Technology (TalTech) have identified dangerous resonant water oscillations in the canal linking Lake Varna (Bulgaria) to the Black Sea.**[⁠](https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1148717) The findings come from a peer- reviewed study published in _Ocean Science_ (17 August 2026) by Jüri Elken, Laura Piho, and Maarja Kruusmaa, with a related news release from the Estonian Research Council dated 21 October 2026. ### **Key details** Pilots had long noticed unusually strong currents in the ~2.4 km- long, 300 m-wide navigation canal (part of the **Port of Varna complex**, **Bulgaria’s largest seaport**). Researchers deployed three novel Hydromast stations (developed at TalTech’s Centre for Biorobotics) that recorded current speed, direction and water level at 1- minute intervals. Analysis showed that moderate flows are occasionally interrupted by high-amplitude oscillations lasting tens of minutes. Dominant periods of **37 minutes **(first mode of the channel- lake system) and **19 minutes **(related to the channel’s quarter- wave mode and the system’s second mode) stood out. These arise from resonance in the sea- channel- lake system, which can amplify movements under certain atmospheric conditions. **Two strong events were recorded:** * One linked to a **meteotsunam**i (abrupt onset under relatively moderate weather when a weather front moves at resonant speed over shallow coastal waters). * Another more than 5 hours after a storm with landward/offshore winds up to 20 m/s.[⁠](https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1148717) In the strongest cases, current velocity changed by up to** 0.8 m/s **and water level by up to** 0.8 m** within about 10 minutes. Such rapid changes pose hazards to ship navigation, harbor operations, and coastal management. The work used **high- resolution observations** plus** 1D barotropic analytical ** and **numerical modeling of long waves in the system**. It discusses approaches for better detecting and forecasting these sub- hourly oscillations, which standard hourly data often miss. The results have broader relevance for other canal–bay– lake systems and for improving port safety and environmental assessments. **Sources:** Estonian Research Council / EurekAlert news release; full paper in _Ocean Science_ (doi:10.5194/os-22-2471-2026). ![Map showing the geographical locations of Varna, Constanta, and Istanbul, with highlighted stations around Lake Varna and Varna Bay, including reference points for different stations and channels.](https://i0.wp.com/climatescience.press/wp- content/uploads/2026/10/image-161.png?resize=840%2C418&ssl=1) **_Location of the study areas. Credit: Ocean Science (2026). DOI: 10.5194/os-22- 2471-2026_** **Power Spectral Density (PSD) is a fundamental tool in signal processing and time- series analysis. It describes how the power (or variance) of a signal is distributed across different frequencies.** ### **Simple explanation** Imagine a time series of measurements (e.g., water level or current speed recorded every minute). PSD answers the question:**“At which frequencies (or periods) is most of the energy and variance concentrated?”** * High peaks in the PSD → strong, regular oscillations at those frequencies. * A flat or slowly declining spectrum → more random or broadband variability. ### **Mathematical idea** For a continuous signal x(t)_x_(_t_), the PSD Sxx(f)_Sxx_​(_f_) is essentially the Fourier transform of the autocorrelation function of the signal (Wiener- Khinchin theorem). In practice, with discrete data it is usually estimated using methods such as: * Periodogram * Welch’s method (averaging modified periodograms of overlapping segments- the method used in the Varna paper) * Multitaper methods Units are typically power per unit frequency (e.g., m²/Hz for water level, or (m/ s)²/Hz for current velocity). ### **In the Varna- Black Sea paper** The authors computed the **PSD of water- level time series** at the four stations in the channel. Key results included: * Clear spectral peaks at periods of** ~37 minutes** and **~19 minutes** (among others). * These peaks were identified as resonant modes of the channel- lake system. * Spectrograms (time- varying PSDs) showed that these oscillations became strongly amplified during the two high- current- speed events. They also used coherence analysis between stations together with the PSD to confirm that the oscillations were nearly synchronous along the channel. ### **Why PSD is useful here** Sub-hourly resonant oscillations would be almost invisible in hourly data. High- resolution (1- min) measurements and PSD analysis made it possible to: 1. Detect the natural frequencies of the system. 2. Link those frequencies to physical modes (first mode of the channel- lake system ≈ 37 min, quarter- wave mode ≈ 19 min). 3. Quantify when and how strongly the system resonated under atmospheric forcing ( including a meteotsunami). ![Graph showing air temperature (red line) and air pressure (blue line) over time.]( https://i0.wp.com/climatescience.press/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/image-162.png? resize=840%2C880&ssl=1) **_Time series of meteorological and oceanographic data _** [OS – High current speed events in a harbor channel driven by resonant sub-hourly sea level dynamics: an example from Varna, Black Sea](https://os.copernicus.org/articles/22/2471/2026/#&gid=1&pid=1) **_Welch’s method _is one of the most widely used practical techniques for estimating the _Power Spectral Density (PSD) _of a signal. ** It was introduced by Peter D. Welch in 1967 and remains the standard approach in many scientific fields (including oceanography, as used in the Varna paper). ### **Why do we need it?** A simple periodogram (the squared magnitude of the FFT of the entire record) is a very noisy and statistically inconsistent estimator of the true PSD. Welch’s method reduces this variance by averaging. ### **How Welch’s method works (step by step)** 1. **Divide the time series into overlapping segments** 2. * The full record of length N_N_ is split into shorter segments of length L_L_. * Adjacent segments usually overlap by 50 % (or sometimes 75 %). * Example: a 3- month record of 1- minute data can be divided into many overlapping 1- day or 6- day segments. 3. **Apply a window function to each segment** 4. * A tapering window (Hanning, Hamming, Blackman, etc.) is multiplied with each segment. * This reduces spectral leakage caused by the abrupt edges of the finite- length segments. 5. **Compute the modified periodogram of each windowed segment** 6. * Take the FFT of the windowed segment and square its magnitude. * Normalize appropriately so the result has the correct physical units (power per frequency). 7. **Average all the modified periodograms** 8. * The final PSD estimate is simply the average of all the individual periodograms. * Averaging dramatically reduces the variance of the estimate. ### **Mathematical summary** If xi(n)_xi_​(_n_) is the i_i_-th windowed segment and U_U_ is a normalization factor that accounts for the window’s energy, the Welch PSD estimate is:S^(f)=1KU∑i=1K∣ ∑n=0L−1xi(n)e−j2πfn∣2where K_K_ is the number of segments. ### **Trade-offs (important practical points)** | Parameter | Effect of increasing it | Typical choice | | Segment length L_L_ | Better frequency resolution | Long enough to resolve the periods of interest | | Number of segments K_K_ | Lower variance (smoother spectrum) | As many as possible | | Overlap | More segments → lower variance | 50 % (most common) | | Window type | Controls leakage vs. main- lobe width | Hanning is the default choice | ### **In the Varna paper** The authors used Welch’s method with: * Longer segments (e.g., 6 days) to examine the broader spectrum (periods from minutes to ~15 hours). * Shorter segments (e.g., 1 day) to better resolve the higher- frequency sub-hourly peaks (the important 37 min and 19 min oscillations). ### **Advantages of Welch’s method** * Greatly reduced variance compared with a single periodogram. * Relatively simple and computationally efficient. * Works well with real- world (non- stationary, noisy) data. * Easy to implement in MATLAB (`pwelch`), Python (`scipy.signal.welch`), R, etc. ### **Limitations** * Frequency resolution is limited by the chosen segment length. * Over- smoothing can hide closely spaced peaks if segments are too short or too many averages are taken. * Assumes the process is roughly stationary within each segment. ![Line graph showing elevation changes in meters over time from March 13 to April 1.](https://i0.wp.com/climatescience.press/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/image-163. png?resize=840%2C689&ssl=1) Water level variability at Stn. 1 from 9 March to 5 April 2025 with a 12 h window and 6 h overlap over successive segments. [OS – High current speed events in a harbor channel driven by resonant sub-hourly sea level dynamics: an example from Varna, Black Sea](https://os.copernicus.org/articles/22/2471/2026/#&gid=1&pid=1) **High current speed events in a harbor channel driven by resonant sub- hourly sea level dynamics: an example from Varna, Black Sea** ### Abstract Current and sea-level observations in the 2.4 km-long, 300 m-wide channel between Varna Lake and the Black Sea, conducted by three novel Hydromast stations with a 1 min resolution, revealed that moderate sub-hourly dynamics were occasionally interrupted by high-amplitude oscillations with a period of a few tens of minutes. The resonant excitation of the events was studied using barotropic 1D analytical and numerical methods. Basic features of high-intensity sub-hourly variations can be interpreted as linear barotropic long waves in a sea-channel-lake system with resonant and damped forcing. The observed 37 min oscillations, identified from the power spectra, spectrogram, and wavelet analysis, can be explained as the first mode of the channel-lake system. Another period of 19 min resembles the zero, quarter-wave mode of the channel and the second mode of the channel-lake system. During the measurement period, two high- amplitude events were highlighted. One of the events is interpreted as having been caused by a meteotsunami; moderate meteorological conditions prevailed; strong channel oscillations began abruptly and lasted for a few cycles. The second event occurred more than 5 h after landward winds up to 20 m s⁻¹. The observed maximum changes in current and sea level – up to 0.8 m s⁻¹ and 0.8 m, respectively, over 10 min – are harmful to ship navigation, harbor operations, and coastal management. Building on these observations, approaches for detecting and forecasting strong sub-hourly oscillations are discussed. ### **Key points from the paper** * **Study area:** Navigation Channel 3 (the older, northern canal) connecting Lake Varna to Varna Bay and the Black Sea, part of Bulgaria’s largest port complex. * **Measurements:** Three Hydromast stations recorded current velocity, direction, and water level at 1- minute resolution (mainly February- May 2025). * **Main findings:** - Background sub- hourly variability is moderate. - Resonant oscillations (especially ~37 min and ~19 min periods) can be strongly amplified. - Rapid changes of ~0.8 m/s in current and ~0.8 m in water level within ~10 minutes pose real risks to shipping and port operations. * The authors interpret the events using 1D shallow-water (barotropic long-wave) theory and discuss detection and forecasting methods useful for pilots and harbor authorities. **Downloads available on the page:** * Full PDF article (≈8.7 MB) * Full- text XML * BibTeX and EndNote citation files How to cite: **Elken, J., Piho, L., and Kruusmaa, M.:** _High current speed events in a harbor channel driven by resonant sub-hourly sea level dynamics: an example from Varna, Black Sea_, _Ocean Sci._, 22, 2471–2490, [https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-2471-2026](https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-2471-2026), 2026. This is the official open- access page for the peer- reviewed paper that underpins the recent news about dangerous water oscillations between Lake Varna and the Black Sea. **Journal:** _Ocean Science_, Volume 22, pages 2471–2490, 2026 **DOI:** [10.5194/os-22-2471-2026](https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/os-22-2471-2026), [https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-2471-2026](https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-2471-2026) **Published:** 17 August 2026 **Provided:** [Estonian Research Council](https://phys.org/partners/estonian-research-council/) **Authors:** Jüri Elken[](https://climatescience.press/juri.elken@taltech.ee?p=481581), Laura Piho,and Maarja Kruusmaa ![Aerial view of a coastal city featuring a harbor with moored ships, a lighthouse, and a sprawling urban landscape in the background.](https://i0.wp.com/climatescience. press/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/image-164.png?resize=300%2C225&ssl=1) [Varna Pilot Station – DEEP SEA AND PORT PILOTAGE VARNA PILOTAGE AREA – information](https://www.varnapilots.com/information_en.html) ## Massive Ice Shelf Once Locked Northern Ice Sheets in Place—Its Collapse Holds Clues for Antarctica’s Future - Link: https://climatescience.press/?p=481513 - Published: 2026-10-22T13:08:56-07:00 - Author: uwe.roland.gross ![A large, flat-topped iceberg surrounded by floating ice chunks in a calm ocean, with snow-covered mountains in the background under a cloudy sky.](https://i0.wp. com/climatescience.press/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/0-Massive-Ice-Shelf-Once-Locked- Northern-Ice-Sheets-in-Place%E2%80%94Its-Collapse-Holds-Clues-for-Antarcticas-Future. jpg?resize=840%2C564&ssl=1) **_AI generated by Grok_** **A massive floating ice shelf in Baffin Bay (west of Greenland) once buttressed three major Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum (~20,000 years ago). Its later disappearance helped accelerate glacier retreat and contributed to substantial sea- level rise. The finding offers a paleo-analog for how loss of buttressing ice shelves could affect Antarctica today.** About 20,000 years ago, an enormous ice shelf more than a mile (~1.4- 2.1 km) thick occupied Baffin Bay. It helped restrain the margins of the Greenland Ice Sheet ( to the east), the Innuitian Ice Sheet (to the north), and the Laurentide Ice Sheet( to the west). Researchers describe these ice sheets as resembling a gothic cathedral, with the floating ice shelves acting as flying buttresses that slow the flow of grounded ice into the ocean. ### Key findings * Scientists from the University of Florida (including co-author Robert Hatfield), University of North Carolina Wilmington, Columbia University, and other institutions mapped the seafloor using multibeam bathymetry and collected sediment cores during a research cruise on the R/V _Neil Armstrong_. They identified a sharp “Ice Contact Boundary” marking where the ice shelf was grounded versus floating. These features occur at depths up to ~1,800 m, deeper than any previously documented glacial bedforms in the Northern Hemisphere, indicating an unusually thick ice shelf. [⁠](https://communities.springernature.com/posts/how-bathymetric-data-proved-an-ice-shelf-hypothesis) * The shelf was comparable in area to major modern Antarctic ice shelves (larger than most except the Ross and Ronne) and thicker at its grounding zone than typical modern Antarctic shelves. * Sediment evidence shows the ice shelf disappeared over roughly 500- 1,000 years. Once the buttressing was lost, the land- based glaciers flowed faster into the sea, melted, and contributed to hundreds of feet of sea- level rise that helped shape modern coastlines. The results were published on October 21, 2026, in _Nature Geoscience_. The discovery was unexpected; the team originally aimed to study what destabilized the western Greenland Ice Sheet at the end of the last ice age. ### Relevance to Antarctica today Ice shelves play a critical stabilizing role. When they thin, break up, or disappear, the grounded ice behind them can accelerate, increasing ice discharge and sea- level contribution, exactly the concern for parts of Antarctica (e.g., around Thwaites or Pine Island glaciers). This ancient Baffin Bay example shows that a large, thick ice shelf on the scale of major Antarctic ones can vanish in centuries, providing a real- world case study of the mechanisms and timescales involved. It supplies new constraints for ice- sheet models, potentially improving projections of how quickly Antarctic ice could respond if buttressing is lost.[⁠](https://news.ufl.edu/2026/10/ice-shelf/) In short, the past behavior of this Northern Hemisphere ice shelf underscores the importance of monitoring and understanding Antarctic ice shelves as climate warms, because their loss can unlock much larger volumes of ice on land. ![Topographic map of Baffin Bay showing depth contours and features like ridges, benches, and gulleys.](https://i0.wp.com/climatescience.press/wp-content/uploads/ 2026/10/image-159.png?resize=840%2C757&ssl=1) Deep ice-contact features on the Baffin Bay slope. Credit: _Nature Geoscience_ ( 2026). DOI: 10.1038/s41561-026-02126-7 **The Baffin Bay Ice Shelf stabilized three adjacent ice sheets during the last glacial period** The Baffin Bay study is valuable as a paleo- analogue, it shows how the loss of a large, thick ice shelf can destabilize marine- based ice sheets, but it does not imply any direct connection between the northern and southern ice sheets. ### **Abstract summary** During the Last Glacial Maximum (roughly 26,500- 19,000 years ago), the Laurentide, Innuitian, and Greenland ice sheets coalesced around Baffin Bay, a semi- enclosed basin between Greenland and Canada. The exact configuration of their marine- terminating margins had been unclear. Using compiled bathymetric data and a geomorphic study of the Baffin Bay continental slope, the authors identify evidence of slope- grounded ice and trace its maximum- depth imprint around most of the bay. They interpret these ice- contact features as the signature of a basin- spanning ice shelf that was **~1,400– 2,100 m thick**( after correction for relative sea level). The shelf covered approximately **150,000 km²**. This extensive ice shelf, supported by the basin’s geometry, **buttressed, mechanically coupled, and promoted thickening **of the three adjacent ice sheets. Sediment- core evidence indicates that collapse of the ice shelf triggered rapid ice- sheet retreat, linking abrupt Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet instability to embayment- scale ice- shelf dynamics. The Baffin Bay Ice Shelf serves as a paleo-analogue showing that ice-shelf loss can rapidly reorganize marine ice sheets, relevant to how weakening buttresses may accelerate future Antarctic ice, stream retreat. ### Key supporting details from related coverage * Authors include Shannon A. Klotsko (University of North Carolina Wilmington), Robert G. Hatfield (University of Florida), Brendan T. Reilly (Columbia University/ Lamont- Doherty), and others.[⁠](https://scienmag.com/geomorphic-study-links-baffin-bay-ice-shelf-to-glacial-stabilization/) * **Ice- contact boundary (ICB)** features were mapped at water depths up to ~1,800 m, deeper than previously recognized Northern Hemisphere glacial bedforms.[⁠](https://communities.springernature.com/posts/how-bathymetric-data-proved-an-ice-shelf-hypothesis) * The shelf was thicker at its grounding zone than most modern Antarctic ice shelves( which reach similar thicknesses only near major feeder glaciers) and comparable in area to large present- day Antarctic shelves (except the Ross and Ronne). * Data (shapefiles of geomorphic mapping, processed bathymetry grids) are publicly available via the Marine Geoscience Data System. This is the peer- reviewed paper underlying the University of Florida news release discussed previously. The full text beyond the abstract is behind a paywall and institutional access. **Journal:** [Nature Geoscience](https://phys.org/journals/nature-geoscience/) **DOI:** [10.1038/s41561-026-02126-7](https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-02126-7) **Provided:**[ University of Florida](https://phys.org/partners/university-of-florida/) **Authors:** [Shannon A. Klotsko](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-026-02126-7#auth-Shannon_A_-Klotsko-Aff1), [Robert G. Hatfield](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-026-02126-7#auth-Robert_G_-Hatfield-Aff2), [Brendan T. Reilly](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-026-02126-7#auth-Brendan_T_-Reilly-Aff3), [Anne E. Jennings](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-026-02126-7#auth-Anne_E_-Jennings-Aff4), [Andrew M. W. Newton](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-026-02126-7#auth-Andrew_M__W_-Newton-Aff5), [Erin E. Gregory](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-026-02126-7#auth-Erin_E_-Gregory-Aff1), [Alan C. Mix](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-026-02126-7#auth-Alan_C_-Mix-Aff6), [Joseph S. Stoner](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-026-02126-7#auth-Joseph_S_-Stoner-Aff6), [Maureen H. Walczak](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-026-02126-7#auth-Maureen_H_-Walczak-Aff7), [Jacqueline Austermann](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-026-02126-7#auth-Jacqueline-Austermann-Aff3-Aff8)& [Lauren Lewright](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-026-02126-7#auth-Lauren-Lewright-Aff3-Aff8) ![A color-coded topographic map showing the seafloor depth in relation to the ice shelf and sub-ice features.](https://i0.wp.com/climatescience.press/wp-content/uploads/ 2026/10/image-160.png?resize=840%2C621&ssl=1) Geomorphic features and formation schematics. Credit: _Nature Geoscience_ (2026). DOI: 10.1038/s41561-026-02126-7